Prosper or Peril: One sleeper and risk from each team for 2021

We’re another step closer to the regular season with about a month until MFFL rosters are finalized. Until then, there remain questions that are awaiting answers.

Among those questions are which players figure to be sleepers for their respective teams this year and which ones carry some sort of risk?

Bangkok Blitz

Sleeper: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB/KC — I was tempted to go with Mike Williams here, as he seems to be getting all the love from those projecting sleepers. But as the saying goes, “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice … I’m never picking you again.” (Or something like that). While the landscape does shape up nicely for Williams this year, I’ll go in a different direction with CEH. Last year, drafted first overall, he finished as a mid-level RB2, which certainly doesn’t seem like what the Blitz was expecting from him. This year, with another year in the offense and less competition for touches, I think he reaches his breakout and puts up huge numbers.
Risk: JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR/PIT — It feels like I’m beating up on JuJu quite a bit, doesn’t it? That’s what happens when you have a big contract — expectations wind up being quite high. In reality, though, there doesn’t seem to be a high level of bustability on this Blitz roster, so JJSS is kind of the de facto choice here. He’s being paid quite handsomely but there’s a strong chance he comes in well short of expectations and his ROI falls flat.

Christmas Island Crabs

Sleeper: Russell Wilson, QB/SEA — Seriously, take your pick here. There are only four choices. Tyreek Hill doesn’t come with sleeper potential. He’s wide awake here and the football world knows what to expect. You also know what you’re getting out of Austin Ekeler, and many seem pretty high on him as well. And the Ravens are, well, a defense. For Wilson, there remains a possibility that he defies expectations and puts forth a season better than where he is currently ranked.
Risk: Tyreek Hill, WR/KC — There’s nowhere to go but down for Hill. You’d be hard pressed to find an owner or fan who thinks Hill can surpass his best numbers as a pro. He is likely to get some action via the NFT auction, meaning there will be no good return on investment. He’s going to dominate as usual and will make some team (if not the Crabs) very happy in 2021. But his upside is capped by his salary here.

Ecuador Ewoks

Sleeper: Cole Kmet, TE/CHI — There aren’t many options here as the Ewoks have one of the smallest rosters at the moment. The second-year tight end ought to take a big step this year and is only limited by the aging veteran in front of him. It seems unlikely Jimmy Graham gets cut at this stage of the offseason, but if he does, Kmet’s fortunes look much better. Still, Kmet ought to get a lot more work in his sophomore season than he did as a rookie.
Risk: Ezekiel Elliott, RB/DAL — There’s not a high bust factor for all the minimum-wage players the Ewoks have. Thus, Zeke becomes the default bust option. Personally, I think he’s due for a revival of sorts after a low-end RB1 finish last year. But with his high salary, which should raise in the NFT auction, he’s not going to suddenly become a good deal. He’ll have tremendously high expectations to meet this year.

Egypt Pharaohs

Sleeper: Deebo Samuel, WR/SF — Due to an injury-plagued 2020 season, and the emergence of rookie Brandon Aiyuk, it seems Deebo has been written off. He’s currently ranked as a low-end WR3, but he’s still talented enough to finish in the mid-20s, if not higher. That, of course, is contingent on him staying healthy and the team not forgetting about him.
Risk: Sony Michel, RB/NE — Michel is currently the Pharaoh’s RB3 … but he just might be the same number option on the Patriots. He’s rapidly losing favor with the team and he doesn’t have a lot of upside this year. The Pharaohs probably would have been better served cutting him prior to the start of the league year and saving that $6.6 million and applying it to a better free agent running back. Instead, they’ll deal with Michel’s inconsistency.

Jamaica Jerks

Sleeper: Joe Burrow, QB/CIN — Laviska Shenault is a close contender for this honor as well, but I’m going with the quarterback. Burrow was off to a decent start in his rookie year before suffering a season-ending knee injury. There are questions as to whether he’ll be healthy enough to shoot out of the gates and play at a high level. If he is, in fact, healthy enough, I expect big things from him. His offensive line might still be a little shaky, but the weapons around him are incredible and he has the chance to push for QB1 territory for the Jerks.
Risk: Kenny Golladay, WR/NYG — When you make a ton of money, you miss most of last season, and you change teams, you have a high bust factor baked in. I’m not so sure Golladay will live up to his contract, and that means the Jerks will have suffered a great deal of opportunity cost.

Nagasaki Kamikazes

Sleeper: Chase Claypool, WR/PIT — There’s not a ton of sleeper potential on this team as most of the players are already well established, and I’m not ready to proclaim Tyler Johnson a sleeper unless several injuries occur to the guys ahead of him. The next most logical choice is Claypool, who flashed potential as a rookie but could make even greater strides should he see more involvement in the offense in Year 2.
Risk: Derrick Henry, RB/TEN — When your team trades a bunch of assets and goes “all in” on you, you’re inevitably the biggest risk of bust on your team. Expectations are sky high for Henry as the Kamikazes pushed their chips into the center of the table with the hope that Henry carries them across the finish line. If he suffers any kind of decline — or an injury — it will have been for naught.

Russia Renegades

Sleeper: CeeDee Lamb, WR/DAL — You can make a case for any of the Renegades’ four running backs as sleeper candidates given the slide down the rankings and consensus negativity they’re all receiving. Instead, we’ll go with one of their second-year receivers. No one is sleeping on Lamb, per se, as he’s rising up the draft boards of many. But he’s talented enough to match the production of fellow classmate Justin Jefferson … it’s just a matter of whether he can get the same targets in a more loaded offense.
Risk: Mike Gesicki, TE/MIA — All of the Renegades tight ends come with bust factors baked in given their comparatively high salaries. Gesicki gets the nod given that he’s the highest-ranked of the bunch. Gesicki is talented, surely. But he was quite erratic last season with boom-or-bust written all over him. Now, with better receivers surrounding him, there’s a chance he has more bust weeks than boom.

San Juan Scorpions

Sleeper: Jalen Reagor, WR/PHI — It’s safe to say Reagor had quite the uninspiring rookie season in 2020. Then again, which Eagles player did not? Given that his team addressed the receiver position in this year’s draft, Reagor is pretty much off the grid by most fans and analysts. That’s the perfect opportunity for sleeper status. There’s no guarantee that DeVonta Smith finishes as the WR1 in Philly, which means if Reagor gets enough targets and manages to stay healthy, he can put up surprise numbers.
Risk: Zach Ertz, TE/PHI — One can make the argument that Ertz has sleeper potential as well if he can get his wish and get traded. But he has the highest tight end contract (for the moment) meaning he comes with tremendous risk. Short of changing locations, Ertz doesn’t have a great ROI.

Switzerland Squirrels

Sleeper: Zack Moss, RB/BUF — Moss is part of a committee and doesn’t figure to get a workhorse load. But that’s also why he has some sleeper status to him. Health has always been a problem for him, so his breakout status hinges on his ability to stay on the field. If he does, I think he earns the lion’s share of the carries and turns out a decent season.
Risk: Michael Thomas, WR/NO — You can mark down Thomas as yet another player with both sleeper and bust potential. I think he’s still one of the Top 5 receivers in terms of “talent”, but maybe not production anymore. His production certainly depends on the quality of quarterback play. He falls into the “risk” category because of his high price tag. Currently slated to make $20 million, unless he gets action in the NFT auction, he’s not likely to have a great ROI.

Turkey Jerky

Sleeper: D’Andre Swift, RB/DET — Exactly how far down the rankings can the experts push Swift? They’re fearful of a new coaching regime with a bad offense and the addition of a supposed pass-catching back? Swift is too good to keep bottled up. At some point, you’ve got to let your best players play, which is why I think Swift will finish above where he’s being ranked.
Risk: Amari Cooper, WR/DAL — There’s nothing inherently wrong with Cooper. He’s a strong veteran receiver playing on a high octane offense. Short of injury, there is every reason to believe he’ll finish as a strong WR2. But he’s never really been a WR1, and it seems a long shot for him to do that this year with a hungry young receiver waiting in the wings behind him. And yet, Cooper is being paid like a WR1 in the MFFL.

Ukraine Grainers

Sleeper: Courtland Sutton, WR/DEN — I could just as easily make the case for Jerry Jeudy (and to some extent Damien Harris and Gerald Everett), but I’ll give the nod to the former Pro Bowler returning from injury. This is a guy who wins jump balls with the best of them and had his success with Drew Lock, of all quarterbacks, throwing to him. We don’t know who will be slinging the ball for sure but he can really only go up from there.
Risk: Jalen Hurts, QB/PHI — Hurts could’ve made a case for sleeper this year if it weren’t for fans and analysts going crazy on predicting his upside. Now, with where he’s being ranked, there’s little room for upside. If he hits predictions, he could have a great season and be just the fill-in the Grainers need if Deshaun Watson indeed does not play. But he carries a lot of risk. Fortunately, the Grainers are four-deep at the position.

Wake Island Wookiees

Sleeper: Blake Jarwin, TE/DAL — Blake Jarwin was the hot prospect just last offseason, which is what led the Wookiees to sign him to a three-year deal, making him one of the highest-paid tight ends in the MFFL. Jarwin played in just one game before suffering a season-ending injury. Now he returns for a second chance, but he’ll have to contend with a lot of other options. Fortunately, he’s part of a high-powered offense so there is a chance at least that he gets to sit at the big kid table.
Risk: James Robinson, RB/JAX — Could there be any other option here but Robinson? The more that the offseason progresses, we continue to hear reports about how Robinson will still be involved in his offense. At the very least, that is needed to avoid a David Johnson-like bust. I don’t see any path for him to return to RB1 territory, short of a Travis Etienne injury or colossal dumpster fire rookie performance. Seeing as how those two options seem like long shots, Robinson’s risk is through the roof.