Extension Retention? Potential players who could sign contract extensions

The MFFL ratified a new rule change this offseason that would allow teams to sign players to contract extensions.

To be eligible for an extension, a player must be entering the final year of his deal beginning with the new league year on June 1. An extension can be signed all the way through December 31. A player can be signed to a two- or three-year deal. When an extension is signed, a player’s old contract is torn up and the first year of the new contract begins immediately with the current year.

A player can be signed to the Transition Tag value at his position, or 120% of his current salary — whichever number is higher.

So, what does this mean? A few notes of importance:

1. A team must have the free cash to take on the player’s new salary. If his current salary is $10 million but the new contract is worth $15 million, that franchise must have at least $5 million in cash available at the time of the extension.
2. The Transition Tag, for those who need a refresher, is a figure that takes the average of the Top 10 salaries at a player’s position. Meaning: if a team does not have a player near the Top 10 at his position — and doesn’t think he’ll finish anywhere near that in the next few years — it’s probably not worth it to extend that player.
3. Because extensions can be signed through the end of the calendar year, it’s not imperative to sign a player before the season even begins. Teams can wait until midseason, or even until the very end of the year, to determine if they want to extend a player.

As a reminder, here are the Transition Tag values by position:

• Quarterback: $4.10
• Running Back: $14.00
• Wide Receiver: $16.00
• Tight End: $4.10
• Kicker: $1.00
• Defense: $1.00

(In the case of kickers and defenses, all eligible players will have their 120% salary used since $1 million is the league minimum and no one is earning less than that.)

Now, with all that mumbo jumbo out of the way, let’s get down to the list of potential players who could be considered for contract extensions this year.

Players who are ‘likely’ to receive an extension

No player deserves a contract extension and very few players are actually “guarantees” to finish in position to justify the price of a contract extension. However, these players are among the top at their positions and it is certainly reasonable to pay them Top 10 money.

Saquon Barkley, RB/NYG — Wake Island Wookiees ($15.90): In a recent post, I made the bold assertion that I feel Barkley will finish as a low-end RB1 in 2021. Whether or not I’m right about that, it is still good value to ink Barkley to a contract extension and avoid letting him get to the open market where his price can be run up. Wake Island needs to set aside $2.7 million in cash and get an extension done with Barkley, who is still young and has great years left ahead of him.

Lamar Jackson, QB/BAL — Russia Renegades ($4.10): Are they going to throw the ball more this year, or let Jackson continue to play like a running back? Whether or not Jackson takes to the air more, his threat to run constantly makes him an X-factor in every game. He’s still young and can get better and — short of injury — is not likely to fall out of the Top 10 any time soon.

Calvin Ridley, WR/ATL — Russia Renegades ($16.00): Ridley has had his fair share of nicks and bruises in his short career, but he is one of the most explosive players in the league. He’s primed for a potential Top 5 finish at the receiver position in 2021 and is well worth Top 10 money.

Darren Waller, TE/LV — Ukraine Grainers ($4.10): One of the few tight ends in the league who plays like a receiver, Waller is about as guaranteed to sign a contract extension as anyone on this list. It’s too risky to place the NFT on him next offseason just to try to sign him to a 3-year deal next year. His price will likely skyrocket in the NFT auction. Instead, it’s best for the Grainers to extend him and get two additional years out of him beyond 2021.

Dak Prescott, QB/DAL — Bangkok Blitz ($4.10): Prescott is returning from injury and should be primed for a big season, very likely to make a push for Top 5 territory. The Blitz could let the season play out and place the NFT on him next offseason. As good as he is, I’m not sure many teams would offer a high salary plus two second-round draft picks as compensation for him. Still, the Blitz might as well take his Top 10 salary and a guaranteed few more seasons of high-powered offense.

Josh Allen, QB/BUF — San Juan Scorpions ($4.10): Allen showed incredible promise during the first two years of his career before exploding into superstar status this past year. Is it possible a team could be willing to give up two second-round picks plus a lot of money for Allen if the Scorpions placed the NFT on him next offseason? Possible, but not probable. Still, it might be wise to take the safer route and lock him up now.

Nick Chubb, RB/CLE — San Juan Scorpions ($14.00): Chubb has been a consistent force throughout his young career with the Scorpions and now he’s looking to get paid. He’s entering the final year of his rookie deal and assuming he finishes as highly as everyone is projecting, it might be wise for the Scorpions to lock him up and prevent him from hitting the market in any capacity. The Scorpions don’t have a ton of cash available, so if they do decide to extend both Allen and Chubb, they’ll need to set aside $6.2 million to get it done.

Players who ‘could’ receive an extension

This is a list of players who might not be in the Top 10 at their respective positions, or they might be but they’re getting paid extremely high salaries. For those who are not in the Top 10, they might be quite close and it could be worth the splurge for their owners to retain them.

Christian McCaffrey, RB/CAR — Ukraine Grainers ($21.60): You’ll see a few running backs atop this list, and we’ll start with the league’s best. Fearful of letting McCaffrey get to the open market, the Grainers have had no choice but to place the EFT on him the past two offseasons. Now with the ability to offer contract extensions on the table, the Grainers could theoretically pony up the dough and lock him in for multiple seasons. How many more seasons can McCaffrey hold up and continue to be the bionic wonder? Not sure. But that’s up to the Grainers to decide.

Dalvin Cook, RB/MIN — Jamaica Jerks ($21.60): Cook, like McCaffrey, has shown flashes of brilliance the past couple seasons. Still having never completed a full season, the threat of injury is always there. Throwing more than 21% of your budget at one of the league’s top running backs might be worth it. MFFL teams are hungry for a stud at the position and the Jerks could consider keeping him off limits.

Alvin Kamara, RB/NO — San Juan Scorpions ($21.60): The MFFL world is curious to see what becomes of Kamara without Drew Brees. By all measures, he should still finish as an RB1, but is he worth $21.6 million? Fortunately, the Scorpions can let the season play out and see what, if any, effect the quarterback change will have on Kamara. Then again, the Scorpions have a depleted cash supply and have several other players worthy of extensions.

Stefon Diggs, WR/BUF — San Juan Scorpions ($18.80): Continuing from the previous analysis, Diggs is yet another player who might be deserving of an extension. Just a season ago he was considered overpriced, but after last year’s magical season, he might have earned an even heftier salary. There’s no reason to expect him to drop out of the Top 10, but can the Scorpions justify paying him that much money?

Allen Robinson, WR/CHI — Russia Renegades ($16.00): One of the most productive receivers with the least amount of quarterback talent available to him throughout his career, Robinson has been a fairly consistent option when healthy. He finished as a WR1 last year and projects to do the same this year. Will his situation change? Will he land a better quarterback this year or next? All things for the Renegades to consider.

Keenan Allen, WR/LAC — Jamaica Jerks ($16.00): Allen has been a stalwart at the receiver position and is consistently near the top of the league in wide receiver scoring. Now paired with a young, promising gunslinger at quarterback, Allen has a bright short-term future ahead of him. The Jerks could let the season play out and consider extending Allen if all looks good.

Tyler Lockett, WR/SEA — Egypt Pharaohs ($16.00): Lockett finished as WR9 last year, but that might have been where he hit his ceiling. He ought to have another big season in 2021, but he might not hit Top 10 territory again. If he produces high-end WR2 numbers, it’s worth considering an extension, but I’d lean on the side of not giving up that kind of money.

Courtland Sutton, WR/DEN — Ukraine Grainers ($16.00): Sutton is returning from a season-ending knee injury last year and he’ll have some competition for targets in 2021. But he’s a bona fide stud receiver when healthy and could push for Top 20 status. The problem for him is that he doesn’t have a great quarterback throwing his way. Sutton is a wait-and-see player, but an extension is probably not likely.

Kareem Hunt, RB/CLE — Russia Renegades ($14.00): Finding quality running backs isn’t easy to do. Hunt finished as an RB1 last year, but short of a Nick Chubb injury, probably isn’t likely to reach those heights again in 2021. Although every team is always on the hunt (no pun intended) for good backs, shelling out TT money for a strong RB2 probably isn’t worth the investment.

Dallas Goedert, TE/PHI — San Juan Scorpions ($4.10): Goedert got hurt last year but was clearly effective in the games in which he played, averaging TE1 numbers. At a position that is perennially difficult to fill, teams will be looking to lock up talented players there whenever possible. The Scorpions have so many other players worth extending, so there’s no guarantee Goedert gets his payday.

Robert Tonyan, TE/GB — Turkey Jerky ($4.10): Was 2020 a fluke or a sign of things to come? That’s the big question on everyone’s mind. It cannot be overstated that Tonyan was aided by an incredible season from a great quarterback. That’s just a simple fact. Some regression is likely, even if Aaron Rodgers does return to throw to him. But will Tonyan remain a TE1? Only time will tell. And to Turkey’s benefit, they can let him play the entire 2021 season before deciding if he’s worth the extension.

Mike Gesicki, TE/MIA — Russia Renegades ($4.70): Gesicki has flashed the potential throughout his career, but hasn’t been the model of consistency. He finished with TE1 numbers last year, but his 2021 outlook is a little murky. Teams will have to start paying a premium for the tight end position, but the Renegades can let this season play out before making a decision on Gesicki.

Players who probably ‘shouldn’t’ receive an extension

This is not going to be an extensive list of players who definitely should not receive an extension. That list is fairly obvious and doesn’t need examining. Instead, this list shows players who could be considered for an extension but doing so would probably overpay them a bit too much.

Davante Adams, WR/GB — Turkey Jerky ($25.00): No. Just, no. For as talented as Adams is, even if he came back and produced similar numbers to last season, and even if he finishes as the WR1 overall, paying one quarter of your budget to a receiver is just not fiscally responsible.

Derrick Henry, RB/TEN — Nagasaki Kamikazes ($21.60): Boy, is it tempting to want to dish out big money to keep Henry for multiple seasons. But can he sustain the heavy workload he has produced the past two seasons? As long as he is healthy and being fed the ball, he enters a whole different level of “Beast Mode” and pushes around helpless defenders like 12-year-old kids. The Kamikazes can let this one ride and see if an extension is worth it, but I’d lean toward using the EFT again next season.

Joe Mixon, RB/CIN — Egypt Pharaohs ($21.60): Mixon’s status is quite familiar by now so I won’t go into that again. I’ll just say that even if he does finish as an RB1 in 2021, I’m not sure it’s worth dishing out $21.6 million to a player who hasn’t exactly been the model of consistency throughout his career.

Aaron Jones, RB/GB — Switzerland Squirrels ($21.60): Jones is yet another player who is worth waiting on this season. Can he keep up what he’s had going? Is he going to lose touches? I think he has hit his peak value and probably isn’t worth the enormous price tag it would take to extend him.

Cooper Kupp, WR/LAR — Switzerland Squirrels ($16.00): Can you believe that once upon a time Cooper Kupp finished as a WR1? Ah, those were the days. With a new quarterback in town, Kupp ought to show much improvement over last season. But I don’t think he’s worth Top 10 receiver money. Hard pass.

D.J. Moore, WR/CAR — Bangkok Blitz ($16.00): Remember how Moore was all the rage last offseason and was being touted as a mid-WR1? Ouch. That failed miserably. Don’t get me wrong, he’s still immensely talented and with the right quarterback could reach that coveted WR1 territory. He just hasn’t proven it yet. The Blitz could wait all season to see if he finally emerges, but I’m guessing he doesn’t show enough to warrant the high price tag.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB/WAS — Turkey Jerky ($4.10): Fitzpatrick is an intriguing one-year player this season. He could provide a boost to Turkey’s offense and actually push for high-end QB2 numbers — if not better. But he’s 75 years old — or something like that. Nah, it’s best to go year-to-year with him until he retires or his arm falls off.

Rob Gronkowski, TE/TB — Jamaica Jerks ($5.10): Color me surprised that Gronk actually returned from retirement and put up decent numbers last year. He could make another push for high-end TE2 numbers. But between the return of O.J. Howard, all the other mouths to feed in that offense, and the fact that Gronk is no spring chicken, he’s not worth extending at this point.

Kirk Cousins, QB/MIN — San Juan Scorpions ($4.10): Although Cousins has boom potential with stud receivers around him, he’s not worth Top 10 money, and the Scorpions will have loads of other players to consider extending before him.

Hunter Henry, TE/NE — Russia Renegades ($4.70): Once upon a time, Henry was a TE1 and had a promising future. Then he joined a “tight end by committee” (I didn’t know that was a thing like it is for running backs) and his future suddenly looks less bright. He might push for fringe TE1/TE2 territory, but it wouldn’t be worth shelling out the money for an extension at that price tag.

James Conner, RB/ARI — Switzerland Squirrels ($14.00): Depending on what analyst you ask, Conner might get the lion’s share of carries in his offense this season. But he won’t be the receiving back and that limits his upside. Plus, you know, there’s that extensive injury history that keeps him down as well. Hard pass.