Bold predictions for 2021

I am not a prognosticator. Nostradamus, I am not. In fact, a blindfolded monkey flinging darts against a cork board of possible outcomes probably has a better chance at forecasting the future.

Nevertheless, it’s fun to make bold predictions based on trends and evidence for what might possibly be coming down the pike.

Here are 10 bold predictions for the 2021 MFFL season.

The 2021 Division winners will be Nagasaki, Bangkok, Ukraine, and San Juan

It’s no coincidence that I predicted these exact same four teams to win their respective divisions in my bold predictions last year. Three of the four came through as promised, with Bangkok needing a second year to complete its rebuild. The North and South Divisions ought to be tight battles with Ukraine and Russia duking it out and Bangkok and Egypt going toe to toe. In the end, I think these four teams have the best roster builds and firepower to hold up over the course of the season and secure enough victories to claim their respective thrones.

Quarterbacks and Tight Ends will get overpaid this offseason

Normally I’d say that finding a quarterback is not too difficult given the strong depth at the position. However, most of the best quarterbacks are locked up by a handful of teams. Three teams own half the currently-ranked QB1s and there are still four teams looking for a bona fide starter at the position. At the tight end position, there is a consensus “Big 3” followed by a huge drop-off. Then there’s a fairly solidified Top 7. Beyond that, there are question marks abound. There are only three unrestricted free agents in the Top 15. In short, as teams struggle to find a dependable player at either of these two positions, the laws of supply and demand will almost assuredly raise the cost.

Dak Prescott will finish as a Top 3 QB

Two years ago, Dak Prescott finished as a Top 3 quarterback. Last year, he got hurt and his season ended early. But Prescott inked a big deal and is surrounded by heaps of talent. Between his ability to run the ball and his big arm and supporting cast, I think he’s bound to finish right back in the Top 5, and I’m stretching that further into the Top 3. Obviously, another injury would nullify such expectations. But health permitting, there’s no reason not to expect big numbers in 2021.

At least one wide receiver will get highly overpaid — and many already are

Three teams own 9 of the currently-ranked Top 11 receivers. There are only five unrestricted free agents in the Top 24, plus another three Non-exclusive Franchise Tagged players who are already making north of $20 million. With so many teams in dire need of not just a WR1 but a WR2 as well, it leaves me with little doubt that cash will be hurled around at receivers in this year’s auction. As it stands, one could argue that many of the tagged players — Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, DeAndre Hopkins, Michael Thomas, and Amari Cooper — along with a few of last year’s tagged players — JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kenny Golladay and Chris Godwin — are all fairly overpaid. Sure, some of these guys are the best in the business, but they’re carrying hefty price tags, even with the elevated salary cap. I just think about the bloated salaries given to David Johnson and Michael Thomas in recent years and how they severely underperformed expectations and can’t help but wonder if we’re headed for more of the same in 2021.

Saquon Barkley will finish as a low-end RB1

Last offseason, there was a general consensus that Saquon Barkley was the No. 2 running back behind Christian McCaffrey heading into the 2020 season. Then he blew out his knee in Week 2 and missed the entire season. Now, he’s somehow ranked all the way up at No. 4 as if nothing happened. Yes, I get it that players can rebound from torn knees. But I have a hard time believing that Barkley will pick up where he left off in 2019, as if 2020 never happened. The rumors are that he will be eased back into a heavy workload, meaning he might be slow out of the gate. In order to finish the season where he’s currently ranked, he’ll have to have quite the finish to the season. I’m betting that — at best — he finishes as a low-end RB1 as he eases back into full-time duty in a bad offense.

10 of last year’s Top 15 tight ends will experience regression

It’s no secret that the tight end position is one of the most volatile in the league. Very few tight ends are consistent from one year to the next. This year will be no different, and I predict it’ll be even more erratic than usual. Given that George Kittle missed time and did not finish in the Top 15, and rookie Kyle Pitts will make his way into that company this year, I predict at least 10 of last year’s Top 15 will see some major regression. Surprise players like Logan Thomas and Robert Tonyan almost have to fall short of last year’s big finishes. Hayden Hurst is headed for a big drop-off. Hunter Henry is primed for a down year. Mike Gesicki and Evan Engram should fall back a little bit. Dalton Schultz will fall off the grid. It’s hard to see Jimmy Graham and Eric Ebron finishing in the Top 15 again. And Rob Gronkowski got a free pass with O.J. Howard missing most of the year. With players like Jonnu Smith and Irv Smith on the rise, and players like Kittle, Tyler Higbee and Dallas Goedert ready to rebound from last year, the whole top half of the tight end picture is about to get shaken up.

Odell Beckham will be a WR3 — and will be overpaid

Fun research project for those of you who care to do it: dig up a player who has been more overrated than Odell Beckham throughout his career. Look, I get it. The guy is talented, there’s no denying that. He’s just not a WR1 in fantasy football anymore and his reign in that role was extremely short-lived. If we played the Family Feud and the question was, “name something you think of when you hear the name ‘Odell Beckham’?” The Top 3 answers on the board would be something like “one-handed, finger-tip catches,” “dyed hair,” and “OBJ.” But the real answer is “chronic underachiever.” The truth is, OBJ hasn’t been a top receiver since 2016 — five seasons ago. Despite that drought, he’s still going to get signed to a big contract because of name recognition. Yet somehow I don’t see him cracking the Top 24 with all the competition for touches he has around him.

This year’s draft class will be one of the worst in recent history

I’m not sure how to quantify this prediction, but it’s my bet nonetheless. Outside of Najee Harris, Kyle Pitts and Ja’Marr Chase, there are very few “sure things” in this year’s draft class. Maybe I’m suffering from recency bias because the 2020 class was superb. But once you get past the Top 5, you’re stuck with a whole lot of question marks. This year’s draft class has the opportunity to churn out some productive quarterbacks, but they could just as easily bust, too. There’s not a whole lot to get excited about and most of the draft picks after the first handful of players could just as easily be determined by a coin flip.

James Robinson will have a David Johnson-esque low Points Per Dollar average

No, I don’t really think this is 100% accurate, but I needed a subhead that would catch your attention. Johnson was paid $26 million — about 34.6% of Ecuador’s cap — whereas Robinson is slated to make $18 million — 18% of Wake Island’s budget. Johnson finished as the league’s 154th highest scorer in 2019. I don’t see that kind of free fall from Robinson short of a major injury. Nevertheless, Robinson is currently ranked as the RB29 and is woefully overpaid. Had the Wookiees not traded as much as a first-round pick for his UFA rights, they could have rescinded the tag on him prior to the new league year. But giving up that first-round pick was ill-advised and now the team will be desperately hoping to salvage some kind of production out of him.

Bangkok will have four Top 15 running backs — and 3 RB1s

The Blitz drafted five running backs in the 2020 draft and four of them appear to have panned out. At the time of this writing, all four of those backs are ranked in the Top 15. So, it might not be so bold to predict they actually finish the way they’re ranked. However, I’ll take it a step further and say that three of them finish as RB1s — meaning: inside the Top 12. Pending health, of course, I think Jonathan Taylor is a lock to finish ahead of them all. He may even push for Top 5 territory. The other three — Antonio Gibson, J.K. Dobbins, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire — have a touch of variability to them but are all explosive and could easily put up huge seasons. I think the primary hurdle standing in their way from finishing in the Top 12 is not so much them or their production as it is the outcome of some of the players ahead of them. Is Cam Akers as good as his hype? Can Joe Mixon stay healthy and play to his ability? Is Aaron Jones headed for regression if Aaron Rodgers doesn’t play? What’s to be made of Austin Ekeler this year? And, of course, can any of the running backs ranked just outside of the Top 15 push ahead of these backs? Time will tell, but Bangkok’s poised for some big production from their backfield.