Draft Pick Value & Analysis – Part 4 – What’s in the cards for me? May 12, 2021 Part 4 – What’s in the cards for me? The following is Part 4 of a 5-part series written by Nagasaki. Having taken the time to review all the statistics behind draft picks with regards to odds of hitting on a pick, financial cost, and what to look for in a prospect, we will explore the value of a pick. I’m never an advocate for giving away your picks unless you gain from it. I will not stand firm and declare that picks are the only way to build a winning team in dynasty leagues. Especially when a salary cap is involved. But once you grasp the value and worth of draft picks we can explore what best to do with them. There are times when it does make sense to offer picks for proven talent. We will explore that in a moment but right now we want to take a look at how you can get the most out of your picks by making sure they line up properly with guys you target. There is nothing wrong per se, with reaching for someone you really believe in, but atop that would be the opportunity to trade up or down in the draft to get a little extra on top of the player you want. 100+ experts rank the prospects and form the ADP value rankings which will help guide who will be available at your selection. But if you’ve done your homework you will find players of great chance and opportunity to fall lower than they are ranked, for various reasons. What should/could you ask for to move down to get your guy? And many times there will be a player you really want but don’t believe he will fall to you. Never be quick to to sell the farm to move up to get a single target,, but question, what should/could you pair up to move up and get you man without losing supporting picks or talent. Using the experts ADP average rankings the following chart is a good starting point to guide you to a pick’s worth so that you can move up and down the draft as desired without losing value on your team merely to take a chance on a player you target. First, some basic guidance: A 1st is not simply a 1st; an early 1st round is worth nearly two late 1sts, perhaps more. The first few 2nds are worth almost as much as a late 1st. Mid to late 2nds are not the same as top 2nds. Typically, a middle round 1st is worth roughly three 2nds. Most drafts go about 16 to 18 deep. After that the value drops quite a bit. Know your trade partner’s strength of team. When trading for future picks, there’s a huge difference in quality when being offered a pick from the best team in the league versus the worst. While 3rd and 4th round picks are primarily long shots, it’s often better to keep them and take a chance on hitting, than to trade them for aging veterans whose talent level can be found in another veteran in auction. More on picks for players later. Basic trade value chart Top-3 pick : 44 Top-6 pick : 34 Top-12 pick : 24 Early 2nd round : 18 Late 2nd round : 12 Early 3rd round : 6 Late 3rd round : 2 4th round : 1 Those values give you a quick guide when considering trading for future picks, but the following is a more detailed chart showing the drop-off from pick to pick. Round 1 Pick 1: 54 Pick 2: 52 Pick 3: 50 Pick 4: 46 Pick 5: 42 Pick 6: 38 Pick 7: 32 Pick 8: 29 Pick 9: 26 Pick 10: 24 Pick 11: 23 Pick 12: 22 Round 2 Pick 13: 21 Pick 14: 20 Pick 15: 19 Pick 16: 18 Pick 17: 14 Pick 18: 13 Pick 19: 12 Pick 20: 11 Pick 21: 10 Pick 22: 9 Pick 23: 8 Pick 24: 7 Round 3 Pick 25: 6 Pick 26: 6 Pick 27: 5 Pick 28: 5 Pick 29: 4 Pick 30: 4 Pick 31: 3 Pick 32: 3 Pick 33: 3 Pick 34: 1 Pick 35: 1 Pick 36: 1 Round 4 Pick 37: 1 Pick 38: 1 Pick 39: 1 Pick 40: 1 Pick 41: 1 Pick 42: 1 Pick 43: 1 Pick 44: 1 Pick 45: 1 Pick 45: 1 Pick 47: 1 Pick 48: 1 When is it worth trading picks for stars? There’s no precise chart as the many elements we covered in previous sections can affect the value and worth of picks. Pick 15 one year might not have the same worth as pick 15 another year, based on strength or weakness of a draft class. Likewise, 1st overall changes from year to year. Hit rate odds stay somewhat consistent, which is to say, they continue to drop pick after pick. We explored this in section 1. There will be times you want to move out of the draft. Perhaps you’re not sold on the talent of the draft class. Or, perhaps you feel a more sure thing star gives you a better chance of competing. Using the data we uncovered in the first 3 sections, we can comprise a value for existing players, relative to those of the draft picks. Top 12 Running Backs, or RB1s, carry a worth similar to a top 3 pick. However, high RB1s are worth perhaps two first round picks or more. If you have an opportunity to lock in a player who has great odds to produce RB1 numbers each week, why would you prefer to have the draft pick in hopes of finding an RB1 when over someone you know already is? Knowing what we learned in sections 1 and 2 regarding odds and cost, we factor these into the worth of a pick versus the cost of a proven player. What we want to avoid is the simple face value of a trade. The link below has a modified expert’s trade value chart. Sometimes on paper the idea of an RB1 for your 1st round pick sounds appealing. However, when considering the age of player, how many years left in MFFL contract, situation in real life contract or team plans, and most importantly cost of current contract, it may be considered a bad trade and poor decision to part with a pick for a player with any of these concerns, despite being a star. The chart factors some of these items in, and modifies the worth of a player accordingly. Overpriced or aging players stuck in bad contracts are worth far less for the recipient having to take on excess cost. On the other hand, players or youth and or having a favorable contract cost compared to production can be found to be almost untradeable as the worth chart would suggest multiple high picks to be given up in return. Again, these charts are just a guide and the start toward helping decide what to do with your picks or players to make sure the trades are close in value. There are several elements that need to be factored when trading and I will still recommend reaching out to another owner not involved in the trade for a second opinion. I hope these articles have been informative and helpful. Use them as a guide to best make the draft enjoyable. The final section, part 5, will be take-two, of my mock draft; a more personalized and analytical approach of a mock draft on what to do with the pick, rather than on the player talent. Coupled with what we have learned about historical trends and results, we look at how each team might approach their selections. Part 1 – Take a chance; roll the dice Part 2 – The financial value of the picks that hit Part 3 – Help me help you Part 4 – What’s in the cards for me?