Draft Pick Value & Analysis – Part 3 – Help me help you May 11, 2021 Part 3 – Help me help you The following is Part 3 of a 5-part series written by Nagasaki. “He’s a shrimp. I want a prototypical wide receiver. I want someone who is six foot three inches tall, two hundred twenty pounds, not someone who’s five ten and bitches in the locker room.” – Dennis Wilburn, Jerry Maguire 25 years later and I believe this truth to be self-evident…. That in fact, not all Receivers are created equal. With names like Antonio Brown, Wes Welker, Julian Edelman, Tyreek Hill, Steve Smith, to name a few, one would think the above statements to be far from the truth. However, math and statistics will always disprove hype and faith and aid in the quest to better draft selection. Running Back 40-yard Dash: 4.48 Height: 5’11 ½” Weight: 217 lbs. Wide Receiver 40-yard Dash: 4.48 Height: 6’1 ¼” Weight: 209 lbs. These are the ‘average’ physical traits that define the top 12 RB or WR when looking at RB1s and WR1s over the past 15 years. Going back to 2006, there have been 180 RB1s and 180 WR1s of course. RBs of smaller stature will typically be pegged for complementary roles and even 3rd down or passing situations. While that can be productive it typically doesn’t merit a top 12 finish most years. WRs of smaller stature will play the slot and can reap huge benefits in a PPR and target league. But the situation is key and you must hope for a good landing spot, with a strong offense, large target share, right coach, and hope to stay away from injury. So I must reiterate, 15 years, 180 receivers finishing top 12 or WR1, and the facts are 21.6% are shorter than 6 feet Remove the names Antonio Brown and Wes Welker and that drops to 15.5% 5.4% have been 5’9″ or shorter. Take away Wes Welker and that number drops to 2.4% 2020 top prospects Henry Ruggs, KJ Hamler, Jalen Reagor, Lynn Bowden, Outranked names like Chase Claypool, Bryan Edwards, Tyler Johnson, Michael Pittman, Gabriel Davis, Laviska Shenault, Denzel Mims, but didn’t necessarily outperform. 2019 top prospects Parris Campbell, Marquise Brown, Andy Isabella, ranked higher than players like Jacobi Meyers, Jalen Hurd, Terry McLaurin, but again, didn’t really outperform. There’s still hope and you can’t always count out the examples given they’re a year and two into their careers, but as a guide it shows even when landing in a good situation, the “turd” receivers don’t always live up to the hype in a large bodied NFL. Who to watch (or watch out) for in 2021 Jalen Waddle 5’10”, Elijah Moore 5’9″, D’Wayne Eskridge 5’9″, Rondale Moore 5’9″, Tutu Atwell 5’7″, Amari Rodgers 5’10”, outranking the likes of Terrace Marshall, Amon-Ra St Brown, Nico Collins, Trevor Grimes, Josh Palmer, Ihmir Smith-Marsette, Anthony Schwartz, Seth Williams, Cornell Powell. I’m not advocating that any or all of those names will in fact surpass the hyped smaller bodied names that are higher up the initial rankings. However, do a little homework. How were they in High School? Where did they get offers from for college? What conference did they play for? And when were they drafted? Even NFL teams miss on talent but with solid statistics you can help increase your odds of hitting on a selection when combining the previous info with the following: how does draft spot in the NFL play into the discussion on fantasy finishes? Over the same 15 years and 180 WR1 finishes, 45.6% of WR1 finishes were drafted into the NFL in round 1. 20% were drafted in round 2 of the NFL. 11.1% were taken in round 3. 15% were found in rounds 4-7 8.3% were signed on as undrafted rookies For RB1 success, the NFL draft round has been a strong indicator as well. 38.3% of RB1s were taken round 1 22.2% in round 2 16.7% in round 3 13.3% rounds 4-7 8.9% were undrafted signings Bonus: the majority of WR1s have come from SEC and ACC schools, followed by PAC 12, Big 10 and Big 12, however, a generous 29% have come from smaller schools outside the powerhouse conferences. SEC Florida Georgia Kentucky Missouri South Carolina Tennessee Vanderbilt Alabama Arkansas Auburn LSU Mississippi Mississippi State Texas A&M ACC Boston College Clemson Florida State Louisville North Carolina State Notre Dame Syracuse Wake Forest Duke Georgia Tech Miami North Carolina Pittsburgh Virginia Virginia Tech 80 of the 180 RB1s were from the SEC and ACC conferences. Almost half. So, what have we learned? There’s always a chance the next Tyreek Hill or Antonio Brown falls in your lap when it’s your pick. But often the safer pick is spent on the players who can reach the top shelf at the supermarket. We’ve explored the percentages of how frequently picks produce consistent WR1s and RB1s, and how much it costs to roster them. We’ve covered the expectations for ROI for each draft pick. We have now explored what to look for in a prospect. At this point you’re either overwhelmed or intrigued. Perhaps both. There’s plenty of time until draft day. A lot will happen as hype is built, and preseason begins. After spending time researching the prospects you may consider moving picks for players, players for more picks, or moving up/down in the draft as you see the mock drafts and ADP rankings and begin to target specific players. The biggest questions now are “what are these picks worth?” and “what is a fair trade?” In the next section we will explore these questions and provide answers to help guide you. Stay tuned …. Part 1 – Take a chance; roll the dice Part 2 – The financial value of the picks that hit Part 3 – Help me help you Part 4 – What’s in the cards for me?