Draft Pick Value & Analysis – Part 2 – The financial value of the picks that hit May 10, 2021 Part 2 – The financial value of the picks that hit The following is Part 2 of a 5-part series written by Nagasaki. Now that we have explored the math behind how few rookies become consistent starting caliber players for fantasy, the next topic is whether or not it’s truly an advantage possessing one of them with a rookie contract. The first thing to consider is what have you done to get the pick that hit? Every team receives 4 picks, one in each round. However, if you traded away a star or multiple picks to land an extra selection, consider at what cost might you have incurred in doing so. We have covered the 12 year history and percentages of draft picks panning out to become consistent RB1, WR1, and WR2. With chances as low as 20-30% in first round selections and teens or less in the 2nd round, it’s been shown that it can be difficult to hit on a given pick. But let’s say you did. The next factor is worth. It’s easy enough to find players who are top 12 at their position. In a standard draft you can select one on your turn. In an auction you can target any or all the top 12s you want, if you have the cash. But a salary cap dynasty league complicates things. With a few variables, Total points scored by all players in the league Starting lineup requirements Roster limit Salary cap one can use this information to determine worth. Cost, is the term to describe the final price an owner pays that year for a player. Worth is what cost a player should be, based on points per game out of the total points pool, league wide. Value helps identify if your player averages more PPG than what you’re paying him to produce. I’ve used the past 10 years of fantasy finishes to compile the data that tells us what to expect from any given position. Based on $100M salary cap, in a 12 team league, with 20 roster spots, and the lineup requirements set, the 10 year history will show us that, for example: RB2 should cost $35.50 RB12 – $14.00 RB27 – $5.60 WR3 – $23.30 WR11 – $14.10 WR 39 – $1.70 And so on…. In an evenly dispersed league of talent, every team would have a top 12 RB, two top 24 WRs, etc. Additionally every owner would have a 10 man lineup with a combination of PPG, (points per game) equal to all other teams. Now, we know that doesn’t happen that way, and the result is from owners having players of value, or, a cost less than their worth. If you have a value contract, this allows extra money to spend on additional talent, and after everyone has spent their money, you should have more talent purchased and acquired than others having spent the same amount. So, does a rookie give you an edge and a value contract? Using the data from the past 10 years of scoring and assuming our draft pick hits and the player is, or becomes, a starter and consistent contributor, we need to assume we are looking to draft someone who becomes RB12 or better and WR24 or better. Even FLEX players which would be top 60, or WR30 or RB30, at worst, would be factored in here. So what does it cost to have that worth? In order to be considered a starting RB, the player would be a break even cost with a worth of $14.00 The WR12 and WR24 should have a cost of $13.30 and $7.00 to break even on your investment. Any less of a cost and you have yourself a value and will be on your way to having an edge in acquiring more talent than other teams in other areas. Anything more, and you’re overspending on a player and could fall short on talent elsewhere as money runs out. So what should you expect from the rookies? Now that we have a 10 year track that proposes what a top 12 player should cost, we can use the rookie wage scale to see how good a value it is, if you’re lucky enough to land a stud in the draft. Rookie 1.01 Based on the Worth Chart, referenced earlier, the RB30 would have a cost of $3.70 to get an even ROI (return on investment) when compared to total points scored league-wide, with regards to PPG versus the rest of the position. Year 1 – $3.60 Year 2 – $7.20 Year 3 – $10.80 Year 4 – $14.40 RB23 is worth $7.40, RB18 is worth $10.70, while RB12 is worth $14.00 In the previous article, we looked at the odds in which a pick produces RB1 and RB2 scoring on a weekly basis, over the course of their career. We expand on that with the data on what to expect in terms of production based on the cost of the contract. To simply get a break even ROI on the pick 1.01 as a Running Back, the expectation would be that he finishes year one as a top 30 RB. Anything higher and you have yourself a value. During the rest of the rookie contract, based on the cost, your player would need to finish top 23 in year two, top 18 in year three, and top 12, or an RB1 in the final year of contract. If he can maintain pace, you have at least broken even with the pick and landed a player who meets the minimum expectation. However, anything less and your pick ends up costing you more than what you get back in return for your dollar. Anything better than finishing the four years as RB30/RB23/RB18/RB12 can be considered a value contract which should result in you obtaining extra talent around him with the money saved. Also consider, as a 4-year investment, the 1.01 costs $36.00 or an average $9 per year. There is no shaving down so you would need to budget the roster around the escalating contract, but for mental note, $9 per year average contract would mean you want to average RB21 or better all 4 years. If, you went WR with the 1.01, the expected ROI break-even-point, over the four year career, would be WR33/WR24/WR17/WR10 Like the RBs, at $9 per year average would need to finish WR21 or better all 4 years to get your minimum worth. Wide Receivers are known to take longer to develop and traditionally one targets the “year-3 breakout” so unless he became a WR2 by year 2, and a WR1 by year 4, one might need to consider the pick overpriced. Rookie 1.06 Year 1 – $2.40 Year 2 – $4.80 Year 3 – $7.20 Year 4 – $9.60 The further down the draft the lower the odds of landing a hit on your pick, as we discussed in the previous article, however, the lower the contract cost and expected ROI. As a second example we look at pick 1.06. If you were to select a Running Back, which as most know wouldn’t be a top tier prospect RB available at 1.06, but for numbers sake for the example, your ROI at the above rookie cost would mean your pick should finish no lower than RB33/RB28/RB23/RB20 over the 4-year contract. If you are fortunate enough to hit on this pick with an RB, it seems fair enough that you’re paying RB20 to RB33 dollar with a chance for a greater talent, and a value contract. More likely in this spot you’re drafting a Wide Receiver. So, based on the rookie wage scale, you would expect a 4-year ROI and finish each year as WR36/WR29/WR24/WR20. These numbers seem reasonable, as that would put the expectation that your rookie WR would be FLEX-worthy in his first 2 years and a WR2 for years 3 and 4. Anything less, and the pick can be considered overpriced. This chart shows the expected rank of player for each of his 4 years on rookie contract based on the rookie wage scale, in conjunction with the assumed worth chart for players and expected ppg based on 10 years worth of final rankings. Up to now, we have exposed how draft picks can be like lotto tickets. With everyone having the same amount of picks each year its equal stakes. Everyone should take those chances to find their next star, and not be so quick to trade them away. But when deciding to chase extra picks via trade, remember to assess the cost of sending away proven talent, combined picks, or throwing your season in quest of extra chance. Before you go and trade your picks away, click on the Worth Chart above and consider what you should expect in terms of production each year from your draft pick. Take the time to compare those expectations to the statistics in part 1 and take a look at the ADP for the current rookie rankings. Consider if you can find value at your draft picks, even if the expected ROI is that of a FLEX player, or even bench depth for injuries and byes. Coming soon, will be trade values of draft picks, which you will be able to use to gauge what could be considered a fair trade if you feel you need to move up or down the board based on talent available. Hang tight for now, after having seen the statistics, we decide to endure the quest; what does it take for a player to hit? In the next section we will look at statistics and trends that can help identify how to maximize the chance of landing a star with your pick. Part 1 – Take a chance; roll the dice Part 2 – The financial value of the picks that hit Part 3 – Help me help you Part 4 – What’s in the cards for me?