2021 Team Capsules: Christmas Island Crabs

In a 12-part series, we take a look at each MFFL team, where they’ve been and where they’re going. We analyze the strength of their current roster build, what areas need improvement, and speculate what they might do in the coming months.

A look back

As defending Super Bowl champions, the Crabs had a somewhat disappointing reign in 2020. The team squeezed into the playoffs with a 6-7 record while scoring the fifth-most points in the league. Due to the league’s wild card rules, they weren’t going to miss the playoffs with as many points as they scored. Still, wins were hard to come by. There were four weeks in which the Crabs finished in the bottom third of the league in scoring, but four other weeks when they were in the Top 3. Finding an identity was difficult due to a few reasons. First, they traded away team MVP Michael Thomas the previous offseason (which turned out to be a blessing), and then Miles Sanders and Austin Ekeler had bouts with injuries all season. Tyler Lockett turned in one of his best seasons as a pro, but D.J. Moore failed to live up to the enormous expectations heaped upon him, DeVante Parker followed up his breakout season with a dud, and Deebo Samuel was hurt as well. The Crabs just couldn’t find consistent production at the receiver position behind Lockett. The Crabs, although 2019 Super Bowl champions, have not sniffed the East Division crown, a title owned by Nagasaki since 2017.

A look ahead

If the Crabs are going to contend for the East crown, it isn’t going to be in 2021 — unless they pull off a magic trick and fool everybody. When the offseason kicked off, the Crabs began shipping off pieces left and right. It was like a “going out of business” sale. The team was getting rid of old merchandise, so to speak, and making room for the new product. Running backs Miles Sanders and D’Andre Swift were jettisoned. Receivers D.J. Moore, Tyler Lockett and Deebo Samuel were kicked to the curb. Quarterbacks Jalen Hurts and Carson Wentz were dumped like yesterday’s trash. Everything must go! Then, the Crabs acquired the rights to Tyreek Hill and placed franchise tags on Hill, Austin Ekeler and Russell Wilson. Are they bargaining chips for future trades yet to come this offseason? Are the Crabs going to collect the draft pick compensation on Hill? Do they intend to sign these players to multi-year deals for the rebuild? Or are they pulling the wool over our eyes? As the great Vince Lombardi once said, “What the hell’s going on out here?!” We’re going to play off the assumption that the Crabs are tanking in 2021 and positioning a run for 2022 or 2023. And we’ll analyze it as such. For now, there’s not much to look forward to in the immediate future.

The Stock Report

Stock Up: Tyreek Hill, WR/KC.
Stock Down: Austin Ekeler, RB/LAC; DeVante Parker, WR/MIA; Ian Thomas, TE/CAR.

Quarterback analysis

A disgruntled Russell Wilson let it be known this offseason that he wanted to get traded. So the Crabs placed the Transition Tag on him, giving him a starting bid in the auction that would make him the second-highest paid quarterback in the MFFL. Russ has been a staple of the franchise for the past four years and it’s difficult to envision him playing anywhere else. But there are a lot of quarterback-needy teams out there who might be tempted to bid on him or trade for him. Wilson probably has several good years left, so it’s conceivable that he signs a multi-year extension with the Crabs and remains their quarterback when the team is ready to compete for a title again. With nobody else under contract, you can expect the team to explore selecting one of the promising young signal-callers in this year’s draft, or possibly trading for one on a long-term deal. Or, perhaps they just sign a veteran to a one-year, minimum salary deal as a warm-bodied placeholder until 2022. Whatever they decide to do, it surely will be with an eye toward the horizon.

Running Back analysis

Coming off a disappointing season in which he missed six games, Austin Ekeler was given the EFT and is locked in to a one-year, $18 million salary. The one-year deal doesn’t guarantee he’ll be on the roster beyond 2021. Then again, there’s no guarantee he’ll even be on the roster this year, either. If running back-needy teams come calling, the Crabs can bring in a nice haul for their rebuild. The Crabs traded two good young running backs on rookie deals — primo assets in the MFFL — so they’ll need to find a way to replenish that during their rebuild. If they play bad enough this year, they’ll get a shot at one in next year’s draft. Aside from Jordan Wilkins, who is collecting dust in the Rookie Corral, the Crabs have no other backs under contract. They’ll scour the free agent market to look for potential deals in the auction and maybe take a shot at a sleeper in the draft. But unless they choose to shell out big bucks for one and sign him to a multi-year deal, they figure to have a radically different running back crew in 2021 then they’ll have when they’re ready to compete again.

Wide Receiver analysis

The Crabs acquired the free agent rights to Tyreek Hill for Courtland Sutton and Ke’Shawn Vaughn. If the team lets Hill walk to the highest bidder and gets two second-round picks, that could be seen as a net loss, depending on how Sutton does returning from injury and if Vaughn takes a step forward in Year 2. The Crabs could also trade Hill before the auction for something more, or could retain Hill and sign him to a multi-year deal to have him around for the finished product after the rebuild. DeVante Parker remains on the roster at a league-minimum deal for one more year. His stock has reached perhaps an all-time low, currently ranked as a mid- to low-end WR4. He probably won’t return much value and will be another body on the Crabs’ roster during this rebuild. The Crabs have three receivers developing in the Rookie Corral in Bryan Edwards, K.J. Hamler, and Deon Cain. Cain has been there for a while and will either stay there or get cut. Edwards and Hamler need a little more time to develop. This year’s draft class is deep although seemingly not as talented as the 2020 one. The Crabs have four picks and could take a swing at a project with one or two of them.

Tight End analysis

Tight end has been the Achilles’ heel in recent seasons for the Crabs but they landed quite the steal when they signed Logan Thomas to an in-season free agent contract last year. Thomas finished as the third-overall tight end, but the Crabs elected to let him test the free agent waters this offseason. The Crabs took a swing and a whiff on Ian Thomas last auction, signing him to a multi-year, $3.3 million deal. Thomas bombed and finished as TE51. He’s now ranked as TE48, but he’s the 11th-highest paid tight end in the league. The Crabs can’t wait to get his salary off the books, and he won’t be around when the team is good again. Count tight end among the positions the Crabs might target with their late picks in the upcoming draft.

Biggest Objective

After selling off their most valuable assets, the Crabs are going to have to define their grand vision. Do they implement a one- or two-year rebuilding plan? Some teams have made a one-year turnaround while others have taken at least two. Once they define that vision, they can begin to lay out their plan of attack. Do they retain their tagged players for the rebuild, or use them as bait to land the bigger fish down the line? Do they target good deals in the auction and throw money around to start building their dream team this year? Or do they intentionally sign the worst, most hot garbage they can find to ensure they get Pick 1 in the 2022 draft? The Crabs have an astounding 21 draft picks in their arsenal, including 7 first-round picks and 8 second-round picks. You can bet that not all of those picks are made by the Crabs, as it’ll be years before they compete if that’s the case. Some of these picks will be used, other picks will be moved for veteran assets. The Crabs have a chessboard in front of them and will be strategically moving their pieces around, waiting for the right time to strike.

“What could be…”

The Crabs have the second-most cap space behind Ecuador with $51.3 million. And yet they have the lowest cash average due to the high salaries of Austin Ekeler on the EFT and Tyreek Hill on the NFT. Last year, they sat tight and left the auction with about a third of their cash still in hand. Did they regret not being more aggressive and adding more pieces? It’s hard to say. But you can bet they’ll be just as judicious this year, picking and choosing a different kind of player. They’ll be looking for players who won’t necessarily help them this year but will be able to contribute in 2022 and beyond. They’ll be looking for good deals and won’t be overly aggressive. I can’t imagine they’ll engage in too many bidding wars. The goal this season will be to position themselves with the best possible cap space moving forward and accumulating assets that will offer a good ROI beyond the 2021 season. The Crabs will be playing for the first-overall pick in 2022 and it will be a long, arduous road ahead for them. It won’t be easy or pleasant, but as it has been proven in the past, a little short-term pain brings a whole lot of long-term gain.

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