2021 Team Capsules: Turkey Jerky

In a 12-part series, we take a look at each MFFL team, where they’ve been and where they’re going. We analyze the strength of their current roster build, what areas need improvement, and speculate what they might do in the coming months.

A look back

The Turkey Jerky are a cautionary tale in accumulating expensive contracts. For most of the 2020 offseason, the Jerky had the most expensive wide receiver in Mike Evans and the most costly running back in Melvin Gordon. Almost 44% of the team’s payroll consisted of just those two players’ contracts. That’d be a lot to absorb if each of those players were the best at his position. But Evans finished as WR13 and Gordon as RB14. The return on investment just wasn’t adequate enough. Fortunately, the Jerky got some cap relief as Amari Cooper was playing out the last year of a $1 million deal. But the team entered the auction with the smallest cash average of any team and had to fill out its roster with players found at the bottom of the bargain bin. As the old expression goes: you get what you pay for. The Jerky were competitive, were the sixth-highest scoring team, and even slipped into the playoffs. But they just didn’t have enough firepower from top to bottom to make a postseason run. Turkey was ousted by Nagasaki in the first round of the playoffs and will head into the 2021 season looking to retool its roster.

A look ahead

What a difference a year makes in terms of the cap. After shedding the contracts of Evans and Gordon, the Jerky have a little more room to breathe this offseason. They have the fourth-lowest cash average, but they have just six roster spots to fill. The team could use some help at some of the starting positions, which could bring them down into the single-digits to fill out the bottom of their roster, but they have to try to swing for the fences on a few players given that their division will be particularly tough in 2021. The Pharaohs are reigning three-time South Division champions while the Blitz could be the most improved team this year. In order to keep up, the Jerky will have to match their firepower. The offense will once again run through their workhorse, Derrick Henry. But he can’t do it alone. The team has just two draft picks this year — a third- and fourth-rounder — and no first round pick in 2022. Which means rebuilding doesn’t look like it’s in the cards for them. Their best option is to land a few playmakers and make another playoff run.

The Stock Report

Stock Up: Derrick Henry, RB/TEN.
Stock Down: Jared Goff, QB/DET; Amari Cooper, WR/DAL; Hayden Hurst, TE/ATL.

Quarterback analysis

The Jerky are in dire need of an upgrade at quarterback, but options look pretty scarce at the moment. The team currently has two of them under contract in Jared Goff and Ryan Fitzpatrick, but neither one is ranked higher than a low-end QB2. Goff’s situation took a turn for the worse this offseason and Fitzpatrick will be celebrating his 82nd birthday this year. The Jerky don’t have anybody in the pipeline, as Mason Rudolph enters the final year of his rookie contract, failing to prove anything other than he’s good at getting into fights with big, angry defensive linemen. There are only three potential free agents available to them on the market who would offer a potential upgrade over Goff. And it’d be ill-advised to further mortgage the future by trading any draft picks for one. Their best hope at this point is for Goff to defy expectations, plus take a shot or two on some high-end QB3s with the hopes that one of them turns in a sleeper season.

Running Back analysis

The Jerky offense will once again run through Derrick Henry this coming season. The workhorse finished as the No. 2 running back in 2020 and the team will need another Top 5 finish from him if they hope to compete for the playoffs. They could use a second starting running back, although the league’s lineup rule change affords them the ability to bypass depth at running back and go after another position instead. The only other running backs under contract at the moment are Tarik Cohen and DeAndre Washington. The former offers sporadic FLEX value by virtue of his receiving ability, the latter is a warm body. The team can try to target Melvin Gordon or Kenyan Drake, two players who they let walk this offseason, or veterans such as Chris Carson or David Johnson. Without a draft pick in the first two rounds this year, they won’t get immediate relief going down that road. One radical idea would be to trade Henry and see if the team could get multiple assets in return — and they could — but it’s always difficult to part with one of the league’s best playmakers.

Wide Receiver analysis

The Jerky curiously placed the Transition Tag on veteran receiver Amari Cooper, and they probably did it out of necessity. Without him, the team’s No. 1 receiver was Tyler Boyd, who finished as WR29 last year. There are also only five other WR1s and WR2s — and only one WR3 — who are unrestricted free agents and there are a number of teams looking for help at the position. Still, Cooper is presently ranked as the No. 20 receiver but comes with a Top 6 price tag. Boyd will now become WR2 in Turkey’s offense, but he has slipped down the rankings from last year. The Jerky can hope for an uptick in production from Sammy Watkins, who had a change of scenery this offseason, or they can hope DeSean Jackson finds the fountain of youth in his new surroundings, but those are two players who will be difficult to count on. The Jerky have two third-year receivers in their Rookie Corral in Miles Boykin and KeeSean Johnson, who thus far haven’t shown much of anything in their young careers. Finding a third receiver is going to prove to be a costly proposition.

Tight End analysis

The Jerky acquired tight end Hayden Hurst from Ukraine last offseason and the third-year player churned out his best season as a pro, finishing as TE9. Despite that production, Hurst is not getting much love from the experts, dropping down to TE16 in offseason rankings. If Hurst gets added competition at the position, the drop might be justified. But he’ll need to produce another big season if the Jerky want stability at the position. Veteran Jack Doyle is also under contract, but is a mid-level TE3. There are a handful of TE2s available if the Jerky desire to add depth at the position, but with bigger needs at quarterback, running back and wide receiver, they can’t afford to spend too much at tight end. The team might be able to find a sleeper with their third-round pick, but they can’t count on big production from such a player in his first year.

Biggest Objective

The Jerky seem to be stuck between a rock and a hard place. Conventional wisdom would suggest that now is a good time to rebuild, given that they lost several veteran players to free agency this offseason and they have a number of holes to fill with precious few resources to plug ’em. But given that the Jerky don’t have a first round pick this year or next, nor do they have a second round selection this year, the can must be kicked down the road for at least another year. The team has six starters at the moment, and the seventh — a kicker — won’t be hard to fill. Which means acquiring at least three more starters from any of the FLEX positions is the biggest objective for the Jerky. It won’t be easy, of course, given the competition expected from multiple needy teams. Plus, the team could use upgrades at quarterback and tight end as well. But going all-in on starter quality players and filling out the rest of their roster with league-minimum contracts would at least give them a shot to compete for the playoffs in 2021.

“What could be…”

If I were playing armchair general manager of Turkey, I would seriously consider trading Derrick Henry. I would preferably get draft picks for him, but if I had a mandate from my owner to compete this year rather than rebuild, I would at least try to get multiple starters in return for him. Without a first- or second-round pick, only a modest amount of cash, and with a lot of competition expected for a handful of free agent starters, the outlook is a little bleak. I’d also look at shedding some salary from a few other players — Boyd and Cohen come to mind — if possible. Even if all they returned was a late-round draft pick. But the Jerky will need three more starters to fill out its lineup, and could use upgrades at quarterback and tight end in order to compete with the Pharaohs and Blitz in the South Division. An outright tank won’t do them any good because they don’t have their 2022 1st Round Pick. This is where the scouting department earns the big bucks. If they can find good players at good value, it will drastically improve their fortunes. If not, it could be a rough 2021.

Next up: Jamaica Jerks