The Stock Report: Who’s up and who’s down?

In all types of investing, be it the stock market, property ownership, or MFFL roster building, it’s important to buy low and sell high.

So who’s stock is up and who’s is down? Let’s take a look at some from each position.

Quarterback Stock Up

Josh Allen, BUF — San Juan Scorpions: Allen’s 2020 season was nothing short of spectacular. He improved leaps and bounds in his passing game while continuing to impress with his legs. He completed nearly 70% of his passes last year and I see a slight regression there. He finished as QB2 last year, but I have a hard time envisioning he’ll match that finish in 2021.

Kyler Murray, ARI — Nagasaki Kamikazes: Murray reminds me a lot of Lamar Jackson from the previous year. He took the league by storm in his second season and made a run at the MVP. Expect him to continue to produce Top 5 quarterback numbers assuming he stays healthy, but a second-straight season as top overall QB seems like a longshot.

Aaron Rodgers, GB — Bangkok Blitz: It’s hard to imagine, but Rodgers had one of his best seasons as a pro in 2020. That says a lot for a 37-year-old. He has the system around him to produce big numbers again, but it’s difficult to envision another Top 5 finish in the MFFL.

Jalen Hurts, PHI — Ukraine Grainers: With the trade of Carson Wentz, the reins — apparently — have been handed to Hurts, and of course that instantly shot his value up. But his sample size was awfully small in 2020 and it’s probably best to reserve judgement until he produces a bigger body of work.

Justin Herbert, LAC — Russia Renegades: Herbert came on the scene strong in 2020 and turned out to be the best quarterback from last year’s draft class for at least the first season. He churned out a Top 7 finish. As is the case with a lot of first-year players, there is plenty to be encouraged about, but until there is a bigger sample size, it’s difficult to buy while his stock is high.

Quarterback Stock Down

Dak Prescott, DAL — Bangkok Blitz: Prescott was a Top 5 quarterback in 2019 and was likely headed for a similar finish last year until he suffered a season-ending injury. Surrounded by plenty of talent, there’s every reason to believe he’ll shoot right back up the ranks in 2021.

Joe Burrow, CIN — Jamaica Jerks: Burrow immediately looked like he belonged in the pros right from the get-go. He had his ups and downs, but was churning out 300- and even a 400-yard game. He then got hurt around Week 11 and missed the rest of the season. With another year under his belt, he could push for high-end QB2, low-end QB1 status.

Carson Wentz, IND — Ukraine Grainers: Wentz had his worst season as a pro last year and his stock could be at an all-time low. But while he didn’t do himself any favors, he was surrounded by deficiencies that brought his game down. Now in a new system with better talent, he could be ready to get right back into at least strong QB2 territory.

Cam Newton, NE — Jamaica Jerks: Newton, seemingly quietly, turned in a strong season as a high-end QB2. One would think that made his stock high, but the uncertainty surrounding him this offseason actually lowers his stock. This is definitely a case of buyer beware, but assuming he lands on his feet somewhere, he’s a buy-low candidate.

Derek Carr, LV — Switzerland Squirrels: Carr churned out a QB15 finish a season ago, has all the pieces in place around him to improve in 2021, but he’s currently being ranked QB20. Carr has consistently been a mid-tier QB2 — hasn’t been a QB1 since the 2016 season. Assuming his fortunes don’t change much, he could produce his best season in years in 2021.

Running Back Stock Up

Aaron Jones, GB — Unrestricted Free Agent: Jones has produced back-to-back RB1 seasons while playing on the league minimum salary, and now he is looking to get paid. He faces a little bit of uncertainty about where he’s going to play. If he stays put, he has the chance to produce strong numbers for the third-straight season, but he’s definitely a sell-high player.

David Montgomery, CHI — Russia Renegades: Montgomery had his best season as a pro in 2020, finishing as RB4 last season. He is a certain candidate to see regression in 2021. It seems unlikely he’ll finish Top 5, but he could still push for low-end RB1 or high-end RB2 status.

James Robinson, JAX — Unrestricted Free Agent: As an undrafted rookie free agent last year, Robinson took the league by storm and finished as RB7. Needless to say, his stock is as high as one could imagine. With a new quarterback coming to town, that could dip into his production a little. But it’s hard not to imagine at least slight regression in Year 2.

Kenyan Drake, ARI — Unrestricted Free Agent: Drake is a prime example of a high-stock player to avoid. He finished as RB12 but it is difficult to imagine a scenario where he finishes that high again in 2021.

Melvin Gordon, DEN — Unrestricted Free Agent: Gordon switched teams last year and still churned out a high-end RB2 finish. A slight regression is expected in 2021, thus Gordon is not a recommended buy-high candidate.

Running Back Stock Down

Miles Sanders, PHI — Russia Renegades: It wasn’t too long ago that Sanders boldly declared he wanted to push for the MVP award. That was before he battled injuries for most of 2020, missed a lot of time, and finished as a low-end RB2. Sanders still has the drive and talent to improve and should be right back on the fringe of RB1/RB2 territory.

J.K. Dobbins, BAL — Bangkok Blitz: Dobbins did not step right in and dominate touches as a rookie, but his production improved as the season went along. Now considered “the guy” in his offense, he’s bound to put up much better numbers in his second season.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC — Bangkok Blitz: Drafted first overall by the Blitz in the 2020 draft, CEH had a disappointing season. He finished as a mid-tier RB2. It’s hard to imagine he won’t show signs of improvement in 2021 and push for RB1 territory.

Joe Mixon, CIN — Unrestricted Free Agent: Mixon possesses RB1 talent and was averaging low-end RB1 points until he suffered a season-ending injury in Week 6 last year. Assuming health, there’s no reason to think he can’t pick up where he left off last season with a strong supporting cast around him.

Austin Ekeler, LAC — Unrestricted Free Agent: Ekeler put up RB1 numbers in 2019 and was on pace to put up similar numbers last season if it hadn’t been for an injury that caused him to miss six games. His stock is certainly low at the moment and he offers upside, if not for the price of the franchise tag.

Wide Receiver Stock Up

Stefon Diggs, BUF — San Juan Scorpions: A year after finishing as a high-end WR3, Diggs’ stock went through the roof last year when he finished as the No. 2 overall wide receiver. For as talented as he is, with as good a quarterback he has slinging him the ball, he should be right back in the WR1 picture again in 2021. However, it’s difficult to envision him as the No. 2 overall receiver again.

Tyler Lockett, SEA — Christmas Island Crabs: Lockett churned out his best season as a pro last year and finished as the ninth-best receiver. He is unlikely to reach that territory again in 2021, and he’s the epitome of a sell-high candidate.

Justin Jefferson, MIN — Russia Renegades: Jefferson set a rookie receiving yard record last year and churned out the best season among a talented crop of rookie receivers in 2020. He finished as WR7. He should push again for WR1 territory, but with so many talented receivers out there, another Top 7 finish doesn’t have great odds at the moment.

Amari Cooper, DAL — Unrestricted Free Agent: For a player with a big reputation, he’s only once finished as a WR1, and a lot of that has to do with his touchdown total. After producing his most catches in a single season and finishing as WR15, he almost assuredly will be an overpaid candidate in 2021.

Corey Davis, TEN — Jamaica Jerks: Davis has had a woefully disappointing career to date. He somehow managed to churn out a WR30 finish in 2020, but it’d be surprising if he finished near that mark again in 2021.

Wide Receiver Stock Down

Michael Thomas, NO — Unrestricted Free Agent: Thomas was overpaid last season and managed to appear in just 7 regular season games. As such, his stock dropped precipitously. However, currently being ranked 12th among receivers has him being woefully undervalued. Still one of the most talented and physically imposing specimens in the league, he should be at least mid-WR1 status no matter who is throwing him the ball.

Chris Godwin, TB — Ukraine Grainers: Godwin produced Top 5 wide receiver numbers in 2019 before missing four games this past year and dropping completely out of the picture. It’s unknown whether he’ll encroach Top 5 status again, but he should definitely push for WR1 territory in 2021.

D.J. Moore, CAR — Bangkok Blitz: Moore was the hot commodity that everybody was raving about during the 2020 offseason. Rankings had him as a mid-level WR1. Using hindsight, that was certainly the best time to “sell high” on his stock. Moore finished as a low-end WR2 last year, but he still possesses the talent and upside to invade WR1 territory with the right QB.

D.J. Chark, JAX — Switzerland Squirrels: Chark is a physically gifted receiver whose stock was high just one season ago. He missed three games and his quarterback play was atrocious. Now with a new quarterback heading to town, he’s the perfect buy-low candidate as he could finish with WR2 numbers in 2021.

Deebo Samuel, SF — Christmas Island Crabs: Coming off an intriguing rookie season, Samuel’s stock was quite high last offseason. Unfortunately, he suffered multiple nagging injuries and played hurt all of last year. His stock has fallen considerably, but if he can stay healthy, he can push for mid-to-low-WR2 status.

Tight End Stock Up

Logan Thomas, WAS — Unrestricted Free Agent: Where the heck did Thomas come from last year? He soared onto the scene and put up Top 3 tight end numbers. Clearly, his stock is at an all-time high and probably won’t ever be this high again. He’s a talented player who could put up TE1 numbers again, but it’s unlikely we see him Top 3 again.

Robert Tonyan, GB — Nagasaki Kamikazes: Tonyan had his breakout season last year, finishing as TE6. There’s no reason to think he’s a flash in the pan, but it’s difficult to count on that kind of finish again without a proven track record. He’s more a sell candidate than a buy one, if only slightly.

Rob Gronkowski, TB — Jamaica Jerks: The old man still can get it done, apparently. After O.J. Howard went down with an injury early in the season, Gronkowski’s numbers saw a steady increase. With Howard coming back, it’s difficult to imagine Gronk’s stock being any higher at this point in his career.

Mike Gesicki, MIA — Russia Renegades: Gesicki showed promise in 2019 and was one of the top tight end picks to break out in 2020. He did finish as TE7, but his play was erratic in doing so. He has TE1 talent, but his production hinges on quarterback play.

Jimmy Graham, CHI — Ecuador Ewoks: Another old man at the position managed to turn heads in 2020. Graham churned out a high-end TE2 finish. He was the prototypical red zone threat — scoring 8 touchdowns but recording just 456 receiving yards. His status is currently uncertain and there’s a high likelihood he drops precipitously in 2021.

Tight End Stock Down

George Kittle, SF — Unrestricted Free Agent: I know, I know. His stock is not really “down” considering he’ll be one of the most highly sought-after free agents this offseason, assuming he does not get the EFT. There might even be a chance he gets overpaid because of the low supply and high demand. But after missing 8 games last season, he took the slightest of hits.

Dallas Goedert, PHI — San Juan Scorpions: Goedert missed five games in 2020, but he averaged TE1 numbers when he played. Assuming he’s healthy in 2021, he should shoot right back into the TE1 window.

Irv Smith, MIN — San Juan Scorpions: Smith showed improvement from Years 1 to 2, and he did it while playing in three fewer games. He looks to be undervalued at the moment, and he could be primed for a Year 3 breakout.

Tyler Higbee, LAR — Unrestricted Free Agent: Higbee came out of nowhere in 2019, putting up TE1 numbers before taking a step back and falling off the map in 2020. He could improve on his mid-TE2 numbers this coming season with a new quarterback in town.

O.J. Howard, TB — Russia Renegades: After a miserable 2019 season and with the pressure on the former first-round pick, Howard began to show signs of improvement, at least in the four games he was healthy. He averaged high-end TE2 numbers until he suffered a season-ending injury.