Let’s play tag: A look at potential franchise tag candidates

The MFFL’s official franchise tagging period has begun. That kicks off a month and a half stretch during which teams can apply one of three types of franchise tags to up to three players who are out of contract and whose rights they own. Tags can be applied, rescinded, and shuffled around throughout this duration, but become locked in on the first of April.

As a refresher course, the three tags are as follows:

Obviously, “to tag or not to tag” is one of the great mysteries of life, and no one can be completely sure how franchises will choose to deploy their tags. Thus, the following analysis is an exercise in judicial best guess in fiscal responsibility and optimal return on investment.

Bangkok Blitz

Potential Candidates: None.
The Rationale: The Blitz enter the offseason with the third-fewest roster spots to fill and have positioned themselves to make a title run in 2021. They also have the second-highest cash average, thus they can make a splash on a few free agents should they choose to do so. Thus, after strategically positioning themselves in great financial shape the past two seasons, I don’t see them blowing that by placing a tag on anybody this offseason. Their only unrestricted free agents are running backs Giovani Bernard and Matt Breida, kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn and the Seattle Seahawks defense. Fairbairn and the Seahawks have reasonable tag values, but the Blitz can also do better in the auction. I wouldn’t expect any tag movement in Southeast Asia.

Christmas Island Crabs

Potential Candidates: Logan Thomas, TE/WAS; Russell Wilson, QB/SEA; Austin Ekeler, RB/LAC.
The Rationale: The Crabs placed the EFT on quarterback Russell Wilson one season ago, and the veteran quarterback just finished his fourth season with the franchise. Wilson is still playing at the top of his game, finishing at QB6 just last year. It’s feasible that they tag him once more and it wouldn’t be a financial stretch to do so. The Crabs have Carson Wentz and Jalen Hurts under contract, but they might not want to turn the keys to the offense over to them just yet. With several key starters set at other positions, they can afford to invest in their starting quarterback. Logan Thomas was a free-agent signing last year and he churned out a TE3 finish. The Crabs have to weigh whether that was a mirage or a sign of things to come. Christmas Island has two key young running backs under contract, thus placing a tag on UFA Austin Ekeler might not be the best financial move. A year after finishing as a Top 10 running back, Ekeler dropped all the way down to 28 last year. He missed six contests and still averaged 16.5 points per game. But to place a tag on him would be to gamble that he finishes as a Top 10 running back again in 2021.

Ecuador Ewoks

Potential Candidates: Ezekiel Elliott, RB/DAL; Chicago Bears, DST/CHI.
The Rationale: The Ecuador Ewoks are headed for a rebuilding year in 2021. With only six players under contract and 92% of their cap space available — by far the most in the MFFL — the Ewoks have a golden opportunity to start acquiring assets for the long term. As such, this might be the right time to trade unrestricted free agent Ezekiel Elliott. The team tried this approach last season but then reacquired him. Now, however, it might make the most sense to dangle him on the trade market and see what they can get in return. A combination of multiple first-round draft picks and/or young prospects could set up the Ewoks for the long haul. The only other player who might be worth tagging is the Chicago Bears defense, who appear set for a resurgence in 2021.

Egypt Pharaohs

Potential Candidates: Joe Mixon, RB/CIN; Odell Beckham, WR/CLE; Robby Anderson, WR/CAR; Evan Engram, TE/NYG.
The Rationale: Placing the franchise tag on unrestricted free agent Joe Mixon should be the top priority for the Pharaohs this offseason. Mixon got hurt and played in only six games last year, but he’s primed for a major resurgence. The RB1 slot is arguably the most valuable position in the MFFL and Mixon would fit the bill. The Pharaohs have a few other tag options although all of them would seemingly be a tad overpriced. Robby Anderson had a breakout year of sorts last year, finishing WR18. To tag him would make him a Top 10 paid receiver, something he’s not likely to match with production. Odell Beckham is still a strong receiver, but he hasn’t produced WR1 numbers since 2016. It might be in the Pharaohs’ best interest to let him walk and let the market dictate his value. The Pharaohs acquired tight end Evan Engram midseason last year. Engram played under the NFT last year but finished as TE11. Do the Pharaohs think he’ll play better this year? If so, it might be worth tagging him. He’s not likely to reach Top 5 territory, so the TT is more in line, should they choose to use it.

Jamaica Jerks

Potential Candidates: Dalvin Cook, RB/MIN; Chris Carson, RB/SEA; Los Angeles Rams, DST/LAR.
The Rationale: Placing a franchise tag on unrestricted free agent running back Dalvin Cook is a no-brainer. The only question is which tag the Jerks should use. The EFT would ensure that he returns to Jamaica, but only on a one-year deal. If they use the NFT, there likely would be bidders for his services, but the Jerks could then re-sign him to a multi-year deal. The Jerks have to ask themselves, “Do I feel lucky?” They have the fourth-lowest spendable cash. If they use the NFT and Cook’s price goes sky-high, they could have precious few resources left to fill out the other 6 spots remaining on their roster. Carson, meanwhile, finished as RB17 last year. Using the EFT or NFT on him would overpay him and that money would be better spent elsewhere. The other player the Jerks could consider tagging is the Los Angeles Rams defense, which is perennially one of the top units.

Nagasaki Kamikazes

Potential Candidates: Davante Adams, WR/GB; DeAndre Hopkins, WR/ARI; Aaron Jones, RB/GB; James Robinson, RB/JAX; Pittsburgh Steelers, DST/PIT.
The Rationale: The Kamikazes began the offseason with six legitimate franchise tag candidates but have narrowed that down to five by shipping off Michael Thomas’ rights to Switzerland. The Pittsburgh Steelers defense finished No. 1 last year, but given the strength of the remaining options, they’re not likely to receive a tag. That leaves a difficult choice for the remaining four options. Davante Adams and DeAndre Hopkins are surefire tags unless the Kamikazes choose to ship one of them. Adams finished as WR1 and Hopkins WR4. That leaves a decision on running backs Aaron Jones and James Robinson. Jones’ future is currently uncertain. Should he relocate, he might lose some value and thus a tag might make him overpriced. Robinson, meanwhile, came out of nowhere last year to finish as RB7. Will the rest of the league catch up to him and cause a backslide? It’s a tough decision awaiting an answer.

Russia Renegades

Potential Candidates: Le’Veon Bell, RB/KC; Marlon Mack, RB/IND;
The Rationale: The Renegades have three unrestricted free agent running backs, but none of them stand out as strong tag candidates. Le’Veon Bell’s days as a top running back are long gone as he blew up his career when he decided to hold out two seasons ago. Bell is not worth Top 10 money, thus he’d easily be overpaid if tagged. Marlon Mack missed all but one game last year and he was headed for a timeshare anyway. His future is currently uncertain, and even if he changes locations and eyes an RB1 role, a tag still might be overvaluing him. As for the third option, Nyheim Hines had a terrific 2020 season while finishing as RB19, but even a Transition Tag is too steep for him.

San Juan Scorpions

Potential Candidates: Alvin Kamara, RB/NO; Robert Woods, WR/LAR; Myles Gaskin, RB/MIA; Justin Tucker, K/BAL;
The Rationale: The first thing the Scorpions said to Alvin Kamara after the season was, “Thanks for helping us win the championship, kid. Now get ready to be slapped with a tag again.” Kamara is not going anywhere as he’s due to be tagged by the Scorpions again. The only question is which tag they intend to use on him. A second-straight EFT would keep him in place for at least one more year. Placing the NFT on him would roll the dice on whether he comes back. He surely would receive some bidding action, but if the Scorpions match the highest bid, they’d get to sign him for multiple seasons. Robert Woods is another tag option. Woods finished as WR12 after a great season. Tagging him with the EFT or NFT would overprice him, but the TT is always an option. Free agent pickup Myles Gaskin had a strong season and finished 13th among running backs in points per game. He’s a Transition Tag candidate as well. Long-time Scorpions kicker Justin Tucker will hit the open market unless they decide to place a tag on him.

Switzerland Squirrels

Potential Candidates: Michael Thomas, WR/NO; Adam Thielen, WR/MIN; Mark Andrews, TE/BAL; Leonard Fournette, RB/TB; Raheem Mostert, RB/SF;
The Rationale: Switzerland has some choices to make this offseason. The first one has already been made, though. The Squirrels acquired the free agent rights to receiver Michael Thomas, and he will get some kind of tag. Whether it’s the EFT or NFT remains to be seen. He played last season under the NFT as the MFFL’s highest-paid player, and only played in a handful of games. Adam Thielen remains a tag candidate as well. He had a rebound season in 2020, but he gets another year older and will be battling for targets. He’s a strong candidate for the Transition Tag. Mark Andrews is one of the top tight ends in the league and the Squirrels could choose to lock him down. The Squirrels also have a pair of free agent running backs in Leonard Fournette and Raheem Mostert. But unless their situations change, tagging either of them would likely overprice them.

Turkey Jerky

Potential Candidates: Derrick Henry, RB/TEN; Kenyan Drake, RB/ARI; Melvin Gordon, RB/DEN; Amari Cooper, WR/DAL;
The Rationale: Running back Derrick Henry is an unrestricted free agent again this offseason and it’ll be but a mere formality when the team applies a franchise tag on him once more. As one of the top running backs, he will certainly receive action in the auction. So the Jerky have to decide if they want to risk placing the NFT on him in order to sign him to a multi-year deal. Running back Kenyan Drake had an uneven season. He finished as RB12, but carries an awful lot of risk should the team use anything more than the Transition Tag on him. Melvin Gordon was one of the highest-paid running backs in the league last year and he only finished as RB14. His EFT price is off the charts at $29.6 million, thus it’s unlikely he’d receive anything more than the TT. Lastly, after playing the past two seasons at $1 million per, Amari Cooper is ready to strike it rich this offseason. He finished as WR15 last year, but only once in his career has he been a WR1, thus he might only be a good candidate for the TT.

Ukraine Grainers

Potential Candidates: Christian McCaffrey, RB/CAR; Tyreek Hill, WR/KC; George Kittle, TE/SF.
The Rationale: The Grainers have three tag-worthy players and all three are likely to get hit with one. He might have only played in three games last year, but Christian McCaffrey sure was explosive in them, averaging over 30 points per game. There’s no way he doesn’t get hit with the EFT again unless the Grainers want to ignite a bidding war. That leaves receiver Tyreek Hill open for the NFT. Hill finished at WR3 in 2020 and is likely going to receive a lot of action from teams in need of a dynamic playmaker. Using the NFT ensures the Grainers don’t let Hill walk for nothing. As for Kittle, he’s one of the best tight ends in the league, and the Grainers already have Darren Waller under contract. Kittle is certainly a trade candidate if the Grainers don’t want to spend top dollar on him. But at the very least, he deserves the TT.

Wake Island Wookiees

Potential Candidates: Julio Jones, WR/ATL; Wil Lutz, NO.
The Rationale: It’s time for the Wookiees to rebuild. They have an astounding 14 unrestricted free agents, should they choose to use a franchise tag on any of them. Of those players, receiver Julio Jones and kicker Wil Lutz make the most sense from a tag perspective. Of course, trading Jones might be the wiser option for the Wookiees as they seek to fill their barren cupboard of draft picks and young prospects. Jones’ EFT price of $32.8 million is exorbitantly high, meaning the NFT or TT would be better options. Still, the team could probably get more in return for Jones than two second-round picks should they lose him in the NFT auction. As for Lutz, he’s consistently been one of the top kickers in the league and its worth bringing him back.