Prosper or Peril: One sleeper and risk from each team

We’ve endured one of the strangest offseasons in the history of football, so we’re likely to enter a regular season with more question marks than answers.

Some teams have guaranteed playmakers on their roster. Others have big ifs. Here’s a look at one potential sleeper (or good return on investment) and one player who carries some risk for each team as we enter the 2020 season.

Bangkok Blitz

Sleeper: Christian Kirk, WR/ARI — Competition for touches has increased for Kirk, but the third-year pro has game-breaking ability and carries a cheap contract. He’s missed seven games over two seasons, so his health will be something to monitor, but he could offer a decent return on investment.
Risk: JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR/PIT — Smith-Schuster had a rough third season due to injuries and poor quarterback play, but there’s plenty of goodwill lingering from his breakout sophomore campaign. Assuming last year’s issues are rectified, he’ll do just fine. But if they don’t, his big price tag will loom large.

Christmas Island Crabs

Sleeper: Derrius Guice, RB/WAS — Guice enters Year 3 of his rocky career with much promise but little to show for it. He remains the lead back for now and thus he offers an opportunity for good ROI on the third year of his rookie deal at the most important position in the MFFL.
Risk: DeVante Parker, WR/MIA — Parker waited until the fifth year of his career to put up relevant statistics. That typically doesn’t happen. It’s usually known long before then whether a guy can hack it. Was 2019 a mirage for Parker or the truth? He doesn’t carry a big price tag, so the “risk” isn’t great, but it’s stronger now with Deebo Samuel out for a while with an injury.

Ecuador Ewoks

Sleeper: Drew Lock, QB/DEN — Lock received a whole bunch of toys this offseason to play with and there really aren’t any excuses for him not to execute and put up respectable numbers. I wouldn’t expect top-of-the-league production, but he has the opportunity to put up some big performances.
Risk: Golden Tate, WR/NYG — Tate is in the final year of a lucrative, 3-year, $11.25 million contract he signed via the 2018 Auction. After a four-game suspension to open the 2019 season, Tate put up respectable numbers and averaged 17.1 points per game. But he’s presently ranked as the 50th wide receiver and is being paid decently for it.

Egypt Pharaohs

Sleeper: Ronald Jones, RB/TB — There are few players leaving owners on the edge of their seats this offseason more than Jones. The third-year back had a nice sophomore campaign and has the opportunity to have a huge season so long as he seizes the opportunity and runs with it.
Risk: Phillip Lindsay, RB/DEN — Lindsay was a Pro Bowler two years ago and finished as a Top 20 back last year. But in his third season, he faces a tremendous battle for touches and he enters the 2020 Auction with an opening bid of $7.50 million. That’s not bad if he produces comparable to last year, but there’s uncertainty that comes with it.

Jamaica Jerks

Sleeper: Julian Edelman, WR/NE — Edelman has been a sneaky good player for a long time, and a lot of that can be attributed to his BFF, Tom Brady. But now with the pair split up, Edelman is losing a lot of attention. In the final year of his deal, being paid $2.25 million, Edelman could quietly be a force for the Jerks.
Risk: Kenny Golladay, WR/DET — Golladay has steadily improved over the first three seasons of his career and has finally earned his payday. He led all receivers with 11 receiving touchdowns last year. One has to wonder if he can maintain that production level after receiving his big contract.

Nagasaki Kamikazes

Sleeper: Diontae Johnson, WR/PIT — Johnson is widely regarded in football circles as the “breakout” candidate for 2020. Most of whom the Kamikazes are rostering this season are well-established players along with some fringe backups. Johnson has the opportunity to supplement the star players and nullify the risk … which leads us to …
Risk: “The Bench” — It’s a bit of a cop-out, I know, but it’s difficult to find the player who comes with noticeable risk. So I’m going with the bench. The Kamikazes feature one of the best starting lineups in the league, but are a bit short on depth at the moment.

Russia Renegades

Sleeper: Calvin Ridley, WR/ATL — Ridley flashed moments of explosion during the first two years of his career, averaging 63.5 receptions, 843.5 yards and 8.5 touchdowns. There are other mouths to feed, but he’s another player talked about in football circles who could be primed for a big 2020.
Risk: O.J. Howard, TE/TB — Howard spent time in the doghouse under new coaching in 2019. And now his outlook appears even darker as he faces the prospect of less playing time and even fewer targets. He carries a big salary with little upside for 2020.

San Juan Scorpions

Sleeper: Irv Smith, TE/MIN — The Vikings jettisoned Stefon Diggs and replaced him with rookie Justin Jefferson. There will still be targets to go around and Smith could be ready to take that second-year leap and further add depth to the Scorpions’ tight end position.
Risk: Alshon Jeffery, WR/PHI — An argument can be made for sleeper potential, too, given that the community is down on Jeffery. But he just can’t stay healthy. He enters 2020 currently ranked as WR61 and is fifth on San Juan’s depth chart, while still bringing home a sizable paycheck.

Switzerland Squirrels

Sleeper: Derek Carr, QB/LV — There was a time when Carr flirted with QB1 territory but he has since regressed. Now might be the time for him to rebound as his team surrounded him with some playmakers, possibly presenting a good ROI on a two-year, minimum-wage deal.
Risk: Tyler Higbee, TE/LAR — Higbee had a very uneventful first three years of his career — actually, make that three and a half. It wasn’t until about halfway through last season that he came out of nowhere and posted huge weekly numbers. With Mark Andrews penciled in as the starting tight end, does Higbee earn his paycheck and his spot in two-tight formations for Switzerland?

Turkey Jerky

Sleeper: Hayden Hurst, TE/ATL — Hurst was almost nonexistent during the first two years of his career as he waited for his opportunity to show what he can do. That opportunity appears to have come as Hurst enters an offense that likes to air it out and he could be a big boost for the Jerky.
Risk: Mike Evans, WR/TB — Evans currently sits atop the MFFL as the league’s highest-paid player. He finished as a strong WR2 a year ago, ranked just 16th among receivers. His path to WR1 numbers just got more difficult this offseason as he’ll contend with many more mouths to feed in 2020.

Ukraine Grainers

Sleeper: David Montgomery, RB/CHI — Montgomery had a disappointing rookie season, so much so that the Jerky — who selected him first overall in the MFFL draft — shipped him away just a month into his tenure. This year Montgomery is projected to get a lot more work and he could pay dividends for Ukraine.
Risk: Todd Gurley, RB/ATL — It’s not that Gurley is a bad player or that he can’t hack it. But he has the knees of a 70-year-old man. I kid, I kid. … A little. So long as he plays, he’s going to put up good numbers. But will he get a full season in? His health is obviously where the risk comes in.

Wake Island Wookiees

Sleeper: Daniel Jones, QB/NYG — The second-year pro had an up-and-down rookie season but flashed the ability to play. If only the Giants playmakers can all stay healthy and play together, Jones just might make a little bit of noise in his sophomore season.
Risk: Kenyan Drake, RB/ARI — The risk with Drake, obviously, is that he regresses and shows more of the same from the first three seasons of his career than he did in the second half of the 2019 campaign. The likelihood, assuming health, is that he puts up good numbers. But his high salary limits the Wookiees’ depth at the position, which obviously carries risk.