Bold predictions for 2020

I am not a prognosticator. Nostradamus, I am not. In fact, a blindfolded monkey flinging darts against a cork board of possible outcomes probably has a better chance at forecasting the future.

Nevertheless, it’s fun to make bold predictions based on trends and evidence for what might possibly be coming down the pike.

Here are 9 bold predictions for the 2020 MFFL season.

The MFFL’s four division winners will be Nagasaki, Ukraine, Bangkok, and San Juan

I expect competition to be tight during the 2020 season (more on that later), thus the battle for the four division crowns could come down to the final few weeks of the season. In the East Division, Nagasaki will seek to defend its division title while taking on the Super Bowl champs, Christmas Island. An improved Wake Island will be in the hunt as well. In the North division, Ukraine and Russia have jostled for control for the past few seasons. Switzerland had a down year in 2019 but is positioned for a rebound in 2020. The South Division was the MFFL’s weakest a season ago, but ought to be uber competitive in 2020. Bangkok tanked in 2019, and as recent history has shown, tanking teams rebound immediately the following season. As for the West, Jamaica and San Juan battled to a close finish in 2019, whereas Ecuador is hoping to make big gains from a year ago. Based on current roster makeup plus available assets, my money would be placed on Nagasaki, Ukraine, Bangkok and San Juan to secure the four crowns.

Lamar Jackson, Christian McCaffrey, Michael Thomas will all experience (somewhat) big regression

We witnessed something incredible in 2019 from a trio of star players. Quarterback Lamar Jackson, running back Christian McCaffrey and wide receiver Michael Thomas put up superhuman statistics en route to incredible seasons. But as the laws of gravity indicate, what goes up must come down. No, I am not insinuating that these three will not be great players anymore. I just don’t expect them to run away from the rest of the players at their positions. Beginning with Jackson, we haven’t quite seen a player perform the way he has; at least not since Michael Vick. But in history, the sustainability of running quarterbacks is weak. Injury proves too great a risk, plus offenses want to protect their highly-paid asset and diversify the offense. As for McCaffrey, a new coaching staff and added weapons increases the likelihood of the offense spreading the ball a little. And for Thomas, likewise, added weapons will take the pressure off him to catch 10 balls a game. These three still will compete for the top spot at their respective positions, but won’t quite dominate the way they did in 2019.

David Johnson will be overpaid … again

Poor David Johnson. (Correction: with the $26 million he got paid in 2019, he’s not “poor.” In fact, after being paid league minimum by San Juan for three years of his career, he was due a big payday.) So, we’ll use “unfortunate” instead. He’s unfortunate in the fact that after massively underperforming his contract in 2019, he’s being set up for another disappointment in 2020. Do I think he’s going to be bad, a la 2019? Of course not. I expect a big uptick in production. However, he is presently the No. 1 available veteran running back at a position of need in the MFFL. And according to the laws of supply and demand, his price is going to go up. He will be able to provide value to a team in need, but they likely will have to overpay for his services.

Joe Burrow will be rookie of the year

Generally, rookie quarterbacks don’t contribute right away. Kyler Murray was an anomaly a season ago, finishing as a Top 5 quarterback in the MFFL. Murray was set up with a good offensive system and had the legs to help him rack up even more points. Burrow, meanwhile, is not regarded for his running ability by any means. But he does have a system in place with playmakers around him to contribute right away. Typically running backs are the ones making the immediate impact, and there are quite a few good ones available in this year’s draft. However, many of those running backs immediately step into murky depth charts. And while several of those rookie running backs are expected to take the reins completely at some point this season, they’ll likely share workloads initially. This opens the door for Burrow, who already will post higher numbers by virtue of being a quarterback, to pull ahead of the pack early on.

There will be a handful of “steals” among NFT players

There were 12 players slapped with the NFT this offseason (that’s always such a violent connotation). One offseason ago, the first since the tag’s inception, there were 11. Exactly zero players changed teams, and very few of the players even received bids from other franchises. There just aren’t that many owners who are willing to give up two high draft picks in addition to paying top dollar for a free agent. As a result of such reservation, some teams stand to benefit from the relatively favorable price tag given such players. The players under an NFT who have favorable opening bids include receivers Michael Thomas, DeAndre Hopkins and Chris Godwin, along with tight ends Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz. Some of the other NFT’s have decent market value as well. But at present, Bangkok, Russia, Jamaica, Ukraine and San Juan are the only teams with the draft capital to place bids on NFT’s. And Ukraine and San Juan seem unlikely to give up their 2020 first-round picks.

Rob Gronkowski will be overvalued

Welcome back, Gronk! After a short, ill-fated stint in the world of professional wrestling, Rob Gronkowski has returned to football to join his former teammate Tom Brady. Those owners who have fond memories of Gronk looking like the best tight end in the universe might be tempted to open their pocketbooks given the reunion between the former Patriots, plus the fact that the Buccaneers offense looks to be explosive. But that’s just the point. There is only one football and there are too many mouths to feed. The likes of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin seem unlikely to be co-WR1s. And the team is likely to play two- and even three-tight end sets with O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate. And that’s completely ignoring the backfield, which Brady likes to use to his advantage with dump-offs. Lest we forget that Gronk had a pedestrian final season before his short-lived retirement and that he hasn’t played a full season since 2011. With all that said, tight end is always a crapshoot, as it is difficult to find a consistently talented player. Thus, that might needlessly drive up Gronk’s price.

The “old guys” will offer good value at quarterback

The NFL is in the midst of a “mobile quarterback” wave. Gone are the days of the stone-footed pure pocket passers — with the exception of the ageless Tom Brady — and here to stay is the era of the fleet-footed athletes who can throw on the move. It’s arguable that the Top 9 MFFL quarterbacks from the 2019 season were mobile quarterbacks. As such, any mobile quarterback who is not currently under contract will likely draw the most attention when the auction rolls around. And once teams have their starting quarterbacks, they are not going to allot much salary to their backups. That means there will be quite a few bargains to be had from among the “old guys” who still have talent and good supporting casts. While Deshaun Watson figures to be the best available among the youngsters, a handful of older — or “semi-older” — players will be good snags as well. Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Carson Wentz, Ben Roethlisberger and Ryan Tannehill are among the multi-year veterans who can provide a big boost to a QB-needy franchise.

“If” Dalvin Cook indeed holds out, his career will take a turn for the worse

Poor Jamaica … they must be devouring a big, heaping helping of déjà vu. A year after enduring the angst of running back Melvin Gordon holding out, the Jerks now have to shift uncomfortably in their beach lounge chairs wondering if Dalvin Cook will make good on his threat to hold out. It seems unlikely he will, given the leverage that his team holds, but it’s never a good feeling nonetheless. This bold prediction has more to do with the long-term ramifications of his career rather than the shortsighted outlook of the 2020 season. If Cook indeed holds out, he very well could damage his career. Running backs are the most dispensable players on a football team. Thus, paying them big money is not wise, as there is always someone younger and hungrier in the pipeline, and the money is better spent on a position that is difficult to fill. As previous holdouts like Le’Veon Bell and Gordon have learned, the grass isn’t always greener. Bell and Gordon may have seen their best days pass them by. Cook is a tad younger, so it’s not a complete apples-to-apples comparison. But Cook also comes with injury risk. And as we’ve seen in recent NFL drafts, teams aren’t afraid to take additional running backs when it “appears” they already have the position stabilized.

There will be tremendous parity in 2020

The MFFL has taken steps to avoid outright tanking — such as making it illegal to start a player who is on his bye week or is on injured reserve. But that doesn’t mean a franchise can’t offload talent for future draft picks and prospects. Barring this kind of “tank” — as well as an abundance of injuries — I expect the 2020 season to be one filled with parity. Scanning the offseason roster builds, most teams are set up with a competent initial core. Whether or not they “take the next step” toward playoff competition will largely hinge on how they do during the upcoming draft and auction. There are a few MFFL teams that have the potential to win more than 10 games, but they would seem to be the exception. I expect most teams to finish within 5-8 victories, with maybe a few outliers.