Let’s play tag: A look at potential franchise tag candidates

The MFFL’s official franchise tagging period begins Saturday, February 1. That kicks off a two-month stretch during which teams can apply one of three types of franchise tags to up to three players who are out of contract and whose rights they own. Tags can be applied, rescinded, and shuffled around throughout this duration, but become locked in on the first of April.

As a refresher course, the three tags are as follows:

Obviously, “to tag or not to tag” is one of the great mysteries of life, and no one can be completely sure how franchises will choose to deploy their tags. Thus, the following analysis is an exercise in judicial best guess in fiscal responsibility and optimal return on investment.

Bangkok Blitz

Potential Candidates: Colts Kicker, K/IND; Raheem Mostert, RB/SF
The Rationale: Assuming kickers aren’t banished from the MFFL this offseason and shipped to the Island of Misfit Toys, the Colts Kicker seems like the only player whose tagging would make financial sense. The Colts Kicker led the MFFL in kicker scoring last season and wouldn’t break the bank at a quarter- or half-million-dollar salary. Likewise, tagging the Cleveland Browns or Dallas Cowboys would be affordable, but likely unnecessary. One player of intrigue is running back Raheem Mostert, who looked impressive at times and pedestrian at others. He’s a player worth monitoring in the offseason, but when it comes down to it, the speculated $9.25 million transition tag for running backs seems a bit costly for him. Lastly, the Blitz have the restricted free agent rights to receivers Mike Williams and JuJu Smith-Schuster. Williams’ price tag likely won’t reach the tag threshold, so the Blitz can match his rights for less. Smith-Schuster theoretically could be tagged to assure he remains with the organization, but there’s a good chance his cost won’t be astronomically high, either.

Christmas Island Crabs

Potential Candidates: Michael Thomas, WR/NO; Russell Wilson, QB/SEA; Leonard Fournette, RB/JAX
The Rationale: One of the most intriguing offseason storylines is that of unrestricted free agent Michael Thomas. The Crabs’ most valuable player from a season ago would command a salary of more than $22 million if he were to receive the EFT. While he was the league’s top wide receiver by a margin of almost 100 points, that kind of salary severely hampers a team’s budget. The Crabs could place the NFT on Thomas, which would set his starting bid around $15 million. Thomas likely would receive some action at that price, and the Crabs could then decide whether to match at that point or be compensated with two high draft picks. Wilson’s time in Christmas Island, meanwhile, might be done. The EFT and NFT price tag for quarterbacks would be $3.25. That’s pushing the ceiling of quarterback price tags, although Wilson could be worth it following a magnificent season in which he finished fourth in quarterback scoring. Alternatively, the Crabs could use the Transition Tag of $2.25 on Wilson and see if any team bites on that. Fournette makes for an interesting decision. The Crabs acquired him by trading a 2021 first round pick, $4.50 cash, and the rights to Kenny Golladay. In short, Fournette will be a Crab in 2020 unless they want all that capital to go to waste. The real question is, do the Crabs fall back on their RFA matching rights? Or do they use the EFT or NFT to try to keep Fournette’s price tag down? I would think the Crabs want to retain Fournette long term, so it doesn’t seem wise to use the EFT. But if the Crabs use the NFT on Thomas, perhaps they bite the bullet, see how high Fournette’s price tag goes, and then utilize the RFA rights to retain him.

Ecuador Ewoks

Potential Candidates: Ezekiel Elliott, RB/DAL
The Rationale: The Ewoks have basically one decision to make in regards to tags this offseason, and that is choosing between the EFT and the NFT for running back Ezekiel Elliott. The EFT would give Elliott a price tag of more than $14 million, based on a 120% increase of his 2019 salary. But it would ensure that Elliott stays in Ecuador for at least one more season. Alternatively, the Ewoks could place the NFT on Elliott, see how much higher his salary goes, and then decide whether to match him and retain him long term, or receive two high draft picks as compensation. Although he’s a fan favorite in Ecuador, it might make sense toward the rebuilding project that awaits them for the Ewoks to get draft picks instead. The Ewoks already will be down more than $11 million in cap hits if they cut David Johnson, as expected. At this point they have to find good, low-budget deals, and none of their other free agents make sense to tag, financially speaking.

Egypt Pharaohs

Potential Candidates: Phillip Lindsay, RB/DEN; Joe Mixon, RB/CIN; Patrick Mahomes, QB/KC
The Rationale: Patrick Mahomes remains one of Egypt’s top priorities, and the Pharaohs must decide between exercising their restricted free agent rights on him, or placing a tag on him. Mahomes’ EFT price tag would be north of $4.75 million, which doesn’t make sense from a financial standpoint or a long-term future perspective. The Pharaohs could use the NFT, which gives them an opening bid of $3.25 on Mahomes. Despite his immense talents, I don’t think he’d get much action from teams leery of giving up two high draft picks for him, plus paying him one of the highest quarterback salaries in the league. Mahomes likely will remain an RFA heading into the auction. Egypt placed the EFT on running back Phillip Lindsay a year ago, who played under an $11.25 million salary in 2019. His EFT price tag this offseason would be $13.50 million, which is perhaps a tad high for his production. The NFT might make sense in his case, which would give him a still-high opening bid of around $13.25 million, but it would ensure the Pharaohs receive draft pick compensation should they choose not to match his highest offer. Mixon, meanwhile, is a restricted free agent so the Pharaohs could match his highest offer without a tag. A disappointing 2019 season could keep his price tag down, but there almost certainly will be teams willing to pony up dough based on his talent and a better 2020 outlook. The Pharaohs have the third-most cap space, so they certainly have the means to bring Mixon back.

Jamaica Jerks

Potential Candidates: Keenan Allen, WR/LAC; Chris Carson, RB/SEA; Carson Wentz, QB/PHI; James White, RB/NE; Dalvin Cook, RB/MIN; Kenny Golladay, WR/DET
The Rationale: The Jerks have perhaps the most extensive collection of tag-worthy players to pick from, which makes their managerial decisions difficult this offseason. Dalvin Cook has to be the team’s highest priority this offseason as he was their most valuable player in 2019. The Jerks have his RFA matching rights, so they have to decide if they want to allow open bidding to run up his salary, or if they’d like to try to keep his cost down by placing the EFT or NFT on him. The EFT would guarantee a contract, but only a one-year deal. The NFT would start the bidding at a reasonable price, but there might be teams willing to part with two draft picks for him. Kenny Golladay is in a similar boat as Cook. While not expected to garner as high a price tag, he should be a fairly hot commodity. The EFT or NFT would likely scare away other owners as it would give him a salary that probably exceeds his production. He’ll probably remain an RFA for Jamaica. The Jerks gave up a promising young prospect in receiver A.J. Brown for the rights to Chris Carson, so Carson is all but certain to receive some kind of tag — it’s just a matter of which one. The Transition Tag would make the most sense from a financial perspective. Carson’s EFT price — $19.50 — is exorbitantly high, and the NFT might be a bit costly, too. Besides, the NFT might make more sense for a player like Allen. I don’t expect teams to be willing to give up two high draft picks for a player like Allen at a price near $15 million. James White is an intriguing player who might be worth the Transition Tag, depending on what that number comes in at. But it’s still a little high, particularly given all the money the Jerks will commit toward their other free agents. Lastly, Carson Wentz played under the NFT tag from a season ago and his salary was a bit high. He’s certainly not worth the EFT investment — about $5 million — and the NFT could be used more effectively elsewhere.

Nagasaki Kamikazes

Potential Candidates: Travis Kelce, TE/KC; Davante Adams, WR/GB; James Conner, RB/PIT
The Rationale: Travis Kelce finished as the undisputed top tight end for yet another season, and the Kamikazes surely would like to retain him. He played under the EFT tag for the second straight year, which means if the Kamikazes use it for a third time, it would bump his salary to at least $11.50 million — based on a 140% escalator from his 2019 salary. That might be a bit excessive for him given that the Kamikazes surely have other targets of interest. Nagasaki could use the NFT on Kelce, giving him an opening bid of $5.75. That’s a more than reasonable salary, which would draw the interest of several teams, but are any of them willing to give up two high draft picks for him? The probability of that remains low. Adams will assuredly receive a tag of some sort. His EFT price tag would be somewhere in the $15 million range, a perfectly reasonable price tag for a player of his skill set. But do the Kamikazes only want him on a one-year deal? If they don’t use the NFT on Kelce, it would make an attractive option for Adams. There could be some action on Adams, depending on how willing teams are to part with the draft picks for him. The Kamikazes could also use the Transition Tag on Adams to allow themselves the ability to sign him to a multi-year deal. That would certainly cause a bidding war for his services, but would the Kamikazes want to risk losing him for nothing if the price gets too high? James Conner is an RFA and is part of an intriguing story line. When healthy, Conner showed he could be an explosive player, but he missed six games toward the end of the 2019 season and was largely ineffective in the three games in which he tried to play through injury. It would probably make the most financial sense to allow the market to determine his value in the auction, and the Kamikazes possess the rights to match the highest offer.

Russia Renegades

Potential Candidates: DeAndre Hopkins, WR/HOU; Kareem Hunt, RB/CLE; Evan Engram, TE/NYG
The Rationale: The Renegades acquired receiver DeAndre Hopkins prior to the 2019 trade deadline and he remains a strong candidate to receive a tag. His EFT price tag would exceed $22 million, which is neither financially tenable nor would it fit under the Renegades’ current cap situation. That makes Hopkins a likely NFT candidate. One of the league’s perennial top receivers, Hopkins could receive interest at the NFT price tag — reportedly in the $15 million range. What it’ll boil down to, though, is how willing teams are going to be to part with two high draft picks. The Renegades own the RFA rights to running back Kareem Hunt and tight end Evan Engram, both of whom have had their struggles for different reasons. Hunt has had legal troubles, which could keep his cost low and prevent the Renegades from using a tag on him. Engram has had injury problems in his short career, which could give owners pause on making a heavy financial investment in him. Neither player is likely to get tagged.

San Juan Scorpions

Potential Candidates: Robert Woods, WR/LAR; Zach Ertz, TE/PHI; Alvin Kamara, RB/NO; Marlon Mack, RB/IND
The Rationale: Robert Woods, certainly a starting MFFL receiver, had a disappointing beginning to the 2019 season, which got him jettisoned from Switzerland to San Juan prior to the trade deadline. Woods would go on to have a strong second half and finish just 33 points behind his 2018 numbers. He still ranked 13th among wide receivers in scoring. But his $18 million price tag turned out to be a financial burden. He could get tagged again, perhaps with the Transition Tag, but the Scorpions have other financial commitments to worry about. One of those is tight end Zach Ertz, who played under an $8.25 million EFT in 2019. His cap number would be around $10 million if the Scorpions used the EFT on him again. While a great player, that seems financially untenable. The Scorpions instead could use the TT on him, with a starting bid of $4.25 million, and see how high his price tag goes. Alternatively, San Juan could use the NFT on Ertz. With a starting bid of $5.75, there might be some action on him but teams would have to give up two draft picks, too, which might scare them off. Lastly, San Juan owns the RFA rights to running backs Alvin Kamara and Marlon Mack. Ideally, the team would like to retain them both. If neither player is tagged, it’s quite possible their combined price tag runs upwards of $30 million. San Juan has the fourth-most cap space, so they certainly can afford it. But if they want to keep cost lower, they might entertain the EFT or NFT tags on either of them.

Switzerland Squirrels

Potential Candidates: Adam Thielen, WR/MIN; Mark Ingram, RB/BAL; Lamar Miller, RB/HOU; Tyler Higbee, TE/LAR; Kyle Rudolph, TE/MIN
The Rationale: Switzerland has no restricted free agents, thus, they can focus the use of their tags on a handful of UFAs. Fan favorite, Adam Thielen, almost assuredly will receive the NFT or TT. His EFT price tag would be a cost-prohibitive $22-plus million. Thielen would likely receive some bids on the TT. Thus, the Squirrels have to decide if they’re willing to let his price go up and risk losing him for nothing if they elect not to match. The NFT would almost guarantee he remains in Switzerland, as giving up two high draft picks, plus a $15 million salary, seems an unlikely scenario for most teams. The Squirrels traded for the rights to running back Mark Ingram, so he’s likely assured some kind of tag. The TT would make the most sense from a financial perspective, but if Switzerland wants to make sure they lock him up, they could splurge with the EFT. Running back Lamar Miller was responsible for a lot of heartache in the Alps when he tore his ACL in the preseason last year. That set off a chain reaction that led to a down year for the Squirrels. There remains a lot of uncertainty around Miller — such as will he be healthy and will he have a job? If those questions are answered during the MFFL’s tagging period, Miller could be a candidate for the TT. That remains an outside chance, though. Tight ends Kyle Rudolph and Tyler Higbee are prospects to keep an eye on. Higbee finished 8th among tight ends in scoring while Rudolph finished 15th. Higbee makes more sense from youth and finance perspectives. A $4.25 million Transition Tag cost is reasonable, but would take a small leap of faith.

Turkey Jerky

Potential Candidates: Devonta Freeman, RB/ATL; Derrick Henry, RB/TEN; Marvin Jones, WR/DET; Tyrell Williams, WR/OAK; Jared Cook, TE/NO; Cooper Kupp, WR/LAR
The Rationale: Running back Derrick Henry will receive some kind of tag. Choosing which one will be a hot topic surrounding Turkey. An EFT will obviously lock up Henry for a year and keep his cost low. The NFT might cause his salary to go up considerably, but it would allow Turkey to retain him for multiple years, or get compensation if they let him walk to another team. Devonta Freeman is another player worth monitoring. His EFT price tag — $13.25 million — certainly exceeds his production. If the Jerky tag him, the NFT or TT would make more sense, with the TT getting the edge due to financial considerations. Marvin Jones and Tyrell Williams are nice pieces, but neither one seems likely to get a tag due to high cost. That leaves restricted free agent Cooper Kupp, who finished fourth among wide receivers in scoring last season. Kupp almost certainly will exceed the Transition Tag price, but it’s a worthless tag, anyway, because it functions just like RFA rights do. Turkey must decide if they wish to allow the bidding to potentially jack up Kupp’s salary, or if they just want to lock him up with the prohibitive EFT or the inhibitive NFT.

Ukraine Grainers

Potential Candidates: Christian McCaffrey, RB/CAR; Deshaun Watson, QB/HOU; Chris Godwin, WR/TB; Ryan Tannehill, QB/TEN
The Rationale: The reality for the Grainers is that they might not get any long-term stability with Christian McCaffrey at this point. The half-man, half-Koenigsegg Agera (look it up) is almost assured a year-to-year contract from now until he becomes fully human. If the Grainers use the NFT, the TT, or just simply exercise McCaffrey’s RFA rights, they will be assuring that he becomes the MFFL’s highest-paid player. That would severely hamper what the Grainers hope to accomplish in other areas of their roster build. The two first-round picks the Grainers could get as NFT compensation for him just might not be worth it. Alternatively, they could dangle him as trade bait and see if any team is willing to give up the farm for him. But their wisest move, from both a financial and roster construction standpoint, is to use the EFT. The Grainers have a couple other restricted free agents in Deshaun Watson and Chris Godwin, both of whom I’m sure the team would like to retain. Godwin, the MFFL’s second-highest scoring receiver in 2019, will command top dollar. They don’t have to place a tag on him to retain him, but using the NFT to secure compensation would be a reasonable option, should they choose to go down that route. Watson, meanwhile, could be retained without a tag, and likely won’t command top dollar due to his position. The last option, which made itself presentable late last season, is tagging quarterback Ryan Tannehill. How Tannehill fares in an entire season of action, one will wonder. He’s likely not worth the EFT price tag, and the TT cost would make him one of the higher-paid quarterbacks as well. Further limiting the likelihood that Tanny is tagged is that if the Grainers invest in Watson, they wouldn’t want too much money wrapped up in the position.

Wake Island Wookiees

Potential Candidates: Drew Brees, QB/NO
The Rationale: At this point, the only candidate likely worthy to receive a tag is quarterback Drew Brees — and that’s if he doesn’t retire. It would not make sense to use the EFT on him, as that would cost roughly $5 million. Brees missed some time with an injury last year, but when he did play, he finished 7th among quarterbacks in average points per game. A Transition Tag might be high, but certainly feasible. The Wookiees may want to use whatever money they can to invest in a running back or receiver, though.