Roster Reconnaissance: One move every team should make

The MFFL offseason is in full effect as an impressive five trades have already been made in the 2020 calendar year. Teams are strategically moving their chess pieces around the board and preparing their strategies for the coming league year. Roster composition is never a finished product and remains a perpetual work in progress.

The following is one roster move that every MFFL team should make to better their team — or, at least, to bring them one step closer to cornering the king.

Bangkok Blitz

Target an NFT (or FA) running back: What the Blitz ultimately decide to do with their surplus of first-round draft picks — or with their roster composition at large — depends on their perception of progress in their rebuild. Do they feel they will compete for a championship in 2020? Or are they more likely to contend in 2021? The answer probably lies somewhere in between. There’s no reason they can’t compete in the coming season, but might lack the firepower to take down one of the league’s Big Dogs — i.e. those with superstar players. If the Blitz want to get aggressive, they could package Pick 11 in this year’s draft with their 2021 first-round pick and go after one of the top players designated with the NFT tag — preferably a running back. Doing this would not cost them Picks 1, 2 or 4, which they could use on promising young rookies. Alternatively, the Blitz could target multiple players via the auction without having to give up two draft picks. They have the most cash and third-highest cost-per-spot average to get this done.

Christmas Island Crabs

Place the NFT on Michael Thomas: What to do with the league’s best wide receiver might be the biggest question of the offseason. Thomas helped fuel the Crabs during their run to the championship last year and the team surely would like to retain him or get something of value in return for him. Thomas has already been placed on the Trade Block, so the Crabs are willing to part with him at the right cost. Determining that cost is the dilemma. Placing the EFT on Thomas would give him a cost-prohibitive salary of more than $22 million. Doing so would likely require the Crabs restructure their roster a little bit if they want some breathing room. They just acquired the RFA rights to running back Leonard Fournette, whom they almost certainly will retain at any cost given that they gave up a first-round pick and cash for him. The salary will pile up quickly. What could make the most sense, if Thomas is not shipped to another team, is placing the NFT tag on him. That would start his opening bid at somewhere in the $13.25-15.00 range. Depending on the winning bid, the Crabs could then match him at a salary less than $22 million, or gain two first-round picks in return.

Ecuador Ewoks

Cut running back David Johnson: The Ewoks made perhaps the MFFL’s biggest mistake last year in matching the $26 million offer that Nagasaki made to running back David Johnson. But they compounded that mistake by inking him to a 2-year deal. The Ewoks wisely spent their excess cash last season to lower his 2020 salary by almost $4 million, but his price tag is still exorbitantly high. If the Ewoks cut Johnson, they will incur an $11.25 million cap hit. As painful as it is to have 15% of your budget as a sunk cost, the Ewoks will save $11 million on the transaction, which they can use toward one or two other contributors this season. Ecuador will surely place either the EFT or the NFT on unrestricted free agent running back Ezekiel Elliott. But acquiring a second running back will be a big priority for them heading into the 2020 season.

Egypt Pharaohs

Target a top running back: The Pharaohs will have a decision to make on quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who has been the face of the franchise for the past two seasons. He is a restricted free agent and the presumption is that they will match the highest bid on him, assuming it’s not an outrageous price tag. Egypt also traded running back Mark Ingram — who was on a one-year deal — for Joe Mixon last year. Mixon, who is also a restricted free agent, would seem likely to return to Egypt for 2020 as well. From there, though, the Pharaohs have to find a way to get a second running back. They have five wide receivers under contract but just one running back. Ronald Jones is that player, but the second-year back has only momentarily flashed his potential. The Pharaohs could choose to use the EFT on Phillip Lindsay for the second-straight season, but his price tag could be a little high for his production. Egypt could trade for one this offseason, or they could go after one aggressively in the auction, utilizing their third-highest cap space to land a playmaker at the position.

Jamaica Jerks

Place the NFT on Keenan Allen: Jamaica has had a curious and busy offseason so far. The Jerks have been involved in three of the five trades that have occurred since the turn of the calendar. One can’t tell if they’re buyers or sellers or somewhere in between. The Jerks gave up promising young wideout A.J. Brown for the unrestricted free agent rights to Chris Carson. So, the assumption is that they will place a tag on Carson, most likely the Transition Tag for cost purposes. The Jerks owned the second overall pick in the 2020 draft which could have given them a top player at a cheap deal. But they traded that pick to land three second-round picks and two third-round picks. They have to be judicious in their scouting process to make sure they get good prospects with those selections. Jamaica then acquired a 2021 first-round pick, $4.50 cash, and the restricted free agent rights to wide receiver Kenny Golladay in exchange for the restricted free agent rights to Leonard Fournette. The assumption here is that Jamaica valued the first-round pick and the cash more than they did the high contract Fournette is likely to command on the open market. So, where does that leave the Jerks? They have the RFA rights to Golladay and running back Dalvin Cook. Retaining both will likely run up a bill of between $25-30 million. The Jerks have a number of talented unrestricted free agents other than Carson, but only one — wide receiver Keenan Allen — seems tag-worthy. The other tag prices might be cost-prohibitive. It would be untenable to place the EFT tag on Allen, as that would put his salary at a ridiculous $22-plus million. Placing the NFT on Allen would almost guarantee he remains with the Jerks as the $13.25-15.00 price might be too high for him, let alone the two draft picks a team must give up for him. If Carson and Allen are tagged and retained, that could run up a $20-25 million cost, bringing the total of the foursome of Golladay, Cook, Allen and Carson to $50-60 million. The Jerks have $65 million to work with, so it can be done, but it’ll be tight.

Nagasaki Kamikazes

Unload wide receiver Stefon Diggs: In 2018, Diggs was a Top 11 wide receiver in the MFFL. This past season, he became the victim of a run-heavy offense and dropped to No. 24, and yet he was the 13th-highest paid wide receiver. It is within reason that Diggs could rebound in 2020 and return to prominence — he’s certainly talented enough. But his contract could prohibit the Kamikazes from being aggressive elsewhere. Nagasaki has about $47 million of space with which to work, and unrestricted free agent Davante Adams will eat up about a quarter to a third of that. Tight end Travis Kelce could be tagged again. If he’s given the EFT, it’ll come at a hefty, 140% increase from his 2019 salary — in excess of $11.50 million. The Kamikazes could save some money using the NFT on him, as giving up two first rounders for a tight end even as good as Kelce could scare off potential buyers. Whatever the case may be, the Kamikazes might have anywhere in the range of $22-27 million if they retain those two players. That affords them the opportunity to go after one premium player for sure, and potentially a second. But if they can unload Diggs, two top-level prospects are certainly within reach.

Russia Renegades

Retain wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins: The Renegades took a shot at making a Super Bowl run last year, trading four young receiver prospects for what amounted to DeAndre Hopkins and an additional first round pick. The Renegades fell short of that goal and now have a decision to make on Hopkins. Placing the EFT on Hopkins is not going to happen, as his $22 million price tag would be unreasonable — and would be above and beyond the Renegades’ current cap space, anyway. The Renegades have four draft picks in the first 13, but loading up on young prospects isn’t going to put them over the top in 2020. To truly make a Super Bowl run this coming season, they’re going to need as many star assets as possible, which includes freeing up the space to retain Hopkins. Russia will have to make decisions on restricted free agents Kareem Hunt and Evan Engram, too, as retaining all three players is financially unfeasible, unless done in conjunction with another roster move.

San Juan Scorpions

Retain Alvin Kamara and Marlon Mack:
Okay, technically these are two moves, but it’s one strategy. The Scorpions have massaged the cap well as they have set themselves up nicely to retain restricted free agent running backs Alvin Kamara and Marlon Mack. The team unloaded the unsightly contract of wide receiver A.J. Green prior to last season’s trade deadline. They also gave up receiver T.Y. Hilton, probably at the right time. Better to be a year too early than too late. The moves have left the Scorpions in great financial shape. They have the highest cost-per-spot average in the league and the fourth-highest cap space. They need a tight end — Zach Ertz is a UFA and might make a good trade candidate — and could probably solidify their wide receiver position. But the first priority is keeping their strong run game intact. Unless the Scorpions use a tag on either Kamara or Mack, the two players are likely to run up a $30 million bill, if not more. That would leave them with around $20 million or so with five roster spots to fill. San Juan should be right back in the thick of things in 2020.

Switzerland Squirrels

Cut wide receiver A.J. Green: Switzerland went into rebuilding mode last season and absorbed the contract of Green, who didn’t play at all in 2019. Green is still under contract for one more season, and while he is likely to play again, it’s probably not in Switzerland’s best interest to pay him that salary. $18.25 is a little high to pay Green in his prime, let alone in the twilight of his career. Including Green, the Squirrels have 7 wide receivers under contract as well as unrestricted free agent Adam Thielen waiting in the wings. Thielen is almost guaranteed to return to Switzerland after the team rented him out to San Juan before last season’s trade deadline. The Squirrels also acquired UFA Mark Ingram, and he is all but guaranteed to receive some kind of tag. Financially, it would make sense for them to use the Transition Tag on Ingram, but if they want to guarantee they have a playmaker at running back, the EFT might be in order. The Squirrels presently have the fourth-lowest cap space in the MFFL, although they have the second-highest cost-per-spot average. In order to comfortably retain Ingram and sign Thielen — moves that could cost between $22-27 million — the Squirrels could certainly use the $9 million of savings they’d retain if they cut Green.

Turkey Jerky

Place the EFT on Derrick Henry: Henry was a bona fide stud for most of the 2019 season. But he went into full-on “Beast Mode” down the stretch. Henry enters the 2020 offseason as an unrestricted free agent, and it would be inexplicable for the Jerky to allow him to hit the open market. A Transition Tag is worthless, as his price will skyrocket above the reported $7.25-9.25 cost. The Jerky could entertain the idea of placing the NFT on Henry if they are willing to consider accepting two draft picks in return for him. But the one surefire way to keep Henry in Turkey next year is place the EFT on him and lock him up for another season. The cost would run between $10-13.25 million. Turkey has the seventh-most cap space, but they have 13 roster spots to fill, leaving them with the third-lowest cost-per-spot average. Two other players I’m sure they’d like to retain, but who will cost them a pretty penny, are restricted free agent Cooper Kupp and unrestricted free agent Devonta Freeman. It would be extortionate to tag any other UFA. Kupp is a high priority for Turkey, but Henry is mandatory.

Ukraine Grainers

Place the EFT on Christian McCaffrey: CMC was the MFFL’s Most Valuable Player in 2019, and it wasn’t really even close. At the most valuable position in the MFFL, he scored 158.8 more points than the second-highest-scoring running back. He averaged a ridiculous 33 points per game. In short, he is not leaving Ukraine to make any free agent visits. They’ve taken his passport and have locked him away. McCaffrey is a restricted free agent, so Ukraine doesn’t technically have to use a tag on him. But if they want to keep his cost down, they sure better. CMC would easily be the highest-paid player in the league if he were allowed to hit the open market. But his value is so great, that not even a consolation prize of two first-round picks would entice the Grainers to place the NFT on him. Besides, retaining McCaffrey at a reasonable cost is more than just about his contract. The Grainers have two other restricted free agents that they’re likely going to want to retain: quarterback Deshaun Watson and wide receiver Chris Godwin. The two could combine for somewhere in the $15 million range, which would leave Ukraine with just north of $30 million in cap space for McCaffrey and five other players. If the Grainers used the EFT on McCaffrey, they’d have about $20-23 million to fill out their roster.

Wake Island Wookiees

Free up cash from the tight end position: Wake Island enters the 2020 offseason with $15.25 assigned to the tight end position — about 20% of their budget. This might be okay if Travis Kelce and George Kittle were getting paid their dues. But Wake Island is making Eric Ebron ($8.25) and Greg Olsen ($7.00) the two-highest paid tight ends in the league, despite them finishing 27th and 13th, respectively, in tight end scoring last season. It might not make sense to cut them both and incur $7.75 in cap hits and then have nothing to show for it. But perhaps they get creative with the deals, accept some dead money and then trade one or both for late-round draft picks. Whatever the Wookiees choose to do, they need to alleviate some of the cash assigned to the position because they have some holes — including at receiver — that they need to fill, and only $8 million of cap space remaining.